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MODELING THE EFFECT OF A NOVEL AUTO-DISSEMINATION TRAP ON THE SPREAD OF DENGUE IN HIGH-RISE CONDOMINIA, MALAYSIA
Journal of Biological Systems ( IF 1.6 ) Pub Date : 2019-01-08 , DOI: 10.1142/s0218339018500250
DAVID GREENHALGH 1 , YANFENG LIANG 1 , WASI AHMAD NAZNI 2 , GUAT-NEY TEOH 2 , HAN LIM LEE 3 , EDUARDO MASSAD 4, 5, 6
Affiliation  

In this paper, we use the classical Ross–Macdonald model to analyze the effect of the Mosquito Home System (MHS), which is an example of an auto-dissemination trap, in controlling the spread of dengue in Malaysia in a high-rise condominium environment. By using the national dengue data from Malaysia, we are able to estimate [Formula: see text] which represents the initial growth rate of the dengue epidemic and thus allows us to estimate the number of mosquitoes in Malaysia. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is also obtained. We have constructed a mathematical expression which allows us to estimate the potential number of breeding sites for Aedes mosquitoes. Later on, by using the data available from the 11 months trials carried out in three blocks of flats in Selangor, we improved on our dengue model by including the effect of the MHS and thus modeling the impact it has on the spread of dengue within the flats. Numerical simulations and tables are also produced to illustrate our results.

中文翻译:

模拟新型自动传播陷阱对马来西亚高层公寓登革热传播的影响

在本文中,我们使用经典的罗斯 - 麦克唐纳模型来分析蚊子家庭系统(MHS)的效果,这是一个自动传播陷阱的例子,在控制登革热在马来西亚的高层公寓中的传播环境。通过使用马来西亚的全国登革热数据,我们能够估算出代表登革热流行的初始增长率的[公式:见正文],从而使我们能够估算马来西亚的蚊子数量。基本再生数[公式:见正文]也得到了。我们构建了一个数学表达式,使我们能够估计伊蚊的潜在繁殖地点数量。后来,通过使用在雪兰莪三个公寓楼进行的 11 个月试验的可用数据,我们改进了我们的登革热模型,包括 MHS 的影响,从而模拟了它对登革热在公寓内传播的影响。还产生了数值模拟和表格来说明我们的结果。
更新日期:2019-01-08
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