Car scrappage schemes are generally introduced to upgrade the car fleet to reduce environmental pressures from private transportation. The aim of this paper is to present a combined use of two counterfactual techniques (RDD and DiD) to quantify the impact of Italian car scrappage schemes of 2007–2009 on the deregistration of cars. The empirical assessment of the policy effectiveness is made possible by a discontinuity in the age of cars that were eligible for the subsidy. In the DiD model we also introduce a variable on ‘product innovation’ in the car market as a factor that determines scrappage timing. Results, based on detailed information on the car fleet and the deregistration of cars in Italy, suggest no impact for the 2007 and 2008 schemes and a large impact for the 2009 scheme, which was based on rather high incentives. Results are robust to both counterfactual approaches and to different tests.

通常引入报废汽车计划以升级车队，以减轻私人运输带来的环境压力。本文的目的是介绍两种反事实技术（RDD和DiD）的组合使用，以量化2007-2009年意大利汽车报废计划对注销汽车的影响。由于有资格获得补贴的汽车的年龄不连续，因此可以对政策有效性进行实证评估。在DiD模型中，我们还引入了汽车市场中“产品创新”的变量，作为确定报废时间的因素。根据有关意大利车队和汽车注销的详细信息得出的结果表明，该计划对2007年和2008年计划没有影响，而对2009年计划则没有很大影响，这是基于较高的激励措施。