Abstract The present study has been conducted to assess the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting – Advanced Research (WRF-ARW, hereinafter named as WRF) model in simulating the very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) “Titli” which formed over the Bay of Bengal during 08–13 October, 2018. The simulated meteorological variables viz. 10-m wind vectors, surface latent heat flux, rainfall, track and intensity based on minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum sustained surface wind (MSW) are assessed to evaluate the model performance. The results are compared with India Meteorological Department (IMD) observations along with verification analyses [FiNaL analysis (FNL)]. The model simulated 24- h accumulation of rainfall verification is carried out by using the Method for Object based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE) tool of Model Evaluation Tool Version 8 (MET-V8). The various statistical skill scores obtained from the MODE clearly indicates that the overall performance of WRF model in predicting the rainfall is reasonably good, mainly at lower forecast length (36–60 hr). The intensity and spatial distribution of rainfall are well matched with the verified analysis as well as with the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. The analysis of maximum latent heat flux in the region of strongest surface wind suggests that the circulation is maintained due to increased transport of heat and moisture from the ocean. The track error analysis shows more error during the model initialization, which gradually decreases with the advance of forecast time. Efficacy of the WRF model in simulating the tropical cyclone (TC) is very distinct from the present study.

中文翻译：

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WRF 模型在模拟孟加拉湾特强气旋风暴“TITLI”中的性能评估：案例研究

摘要 本研究旨在评估天气研究和预报 - 高级研究（WRF-ARW，以下简称 WRF）模型在模拟在海湾形成的超强气旋风暴（VSCS）“Titli”方面的性能。 2018 年 10 月 8-13 日期间的孟加拉。模拟的气象变量即。评估基于最小海平面压力 (MSLP)、最大持续表面风 (MSW) 的 10 米风矢量、地表潜热通量、降雨、轨迹和强度，以评估模型性能。结果与印度气象部门 (IMD) 的观测结果以及验证分析 [FiNaL 分析 (FNL)] 进行了比较。模型模拟24h累积降雨验证是使用模型评估工具第8版（MET-V8）的基于对象的诊断评估方法（MODE）工具进行的。从 MODE 获得的各种统计技能分数清楚地表明，WRF 模型在预测降雨方面的整体性能相当不错，主要是在较低的预测长度（36-60 小时）。降雨的强度和空间分布与经验证的分析以及热带降雨测量任务 (TRMM) 的观测结果非常吻合。对地表风最强区域的最大潜热通量的分析表明，由于来自海洋的热量和水分输送增加，环流得以维持。跟踪误差分析显示模型初始化过程中误差较大，随预报时间的提前而逐渐减小。WRF 模型在模拟热带气旋 (TC) 方面的效果与目前的研究截然不同。