System evolution prediction is critical for designers to make R&D and outsourcing decisions. Many descriptive models are used for this purpose, but they have several limitations. In this paper, we extend the Lotka–Volterra equations as an ecosystem model to predict the performances of the system and its components. This model comprises a set of differential equations that describe symbiosis, commensalism, and amensalism relationships between a system and multiple components. We associate every parameter in the model with its causal factors, develop a three-step application of the model, and illustrate the application through a case study on passenger airplane fuel efficiency. Our model identifies the key components in a system. The identified components help designers generate strategies to boost system performance.

系统演化预测对于设计人员进行研发和外包决策至关重要。许多描述性模型用于此目的，但是它们有一些限制。在本文中，我们将Lotka–Volterra方程扩展为生态系统模型，以预测系统及其组件的性能。该模型包括一组微分方程，这些微分方程描述了系统与多个组件之间的共生关系，共同关系和同相关系。我们将模型中的每个参数与其因果关系相关联，开发模型的三步应用程序，并通过对客机燃油效率的案例研究来说明该应用程序。我们的模型可以识别系统中的关键组件。识别出的组件可帮助设计人员制定策略来提高系统性能。