Wildfire danger is often ascribed to increased temperature, decreased humidity, drier fuels, or higher wind speed. However, the concurrence of drivers—defined as climate, meteorological and biophysical factors that enable fire growth—is rarely tested for commonly used fire danger indices or climate change studies. Treating causal factors as independent additive influences can lead to inaccurate inferences about shifting hazards if the factors interact as a series of switches that collectively modulate fire growth. As evidence, we show that in Southern California very large fires and ‘megafires’ are more strongly associated with multiple drivers exceeding moderate thresholds concurrently, rather than direct relationships with extreme magnitudes of individual drivers or additive combinations of those drivers. Days with concurrent fire drivers exceeding thresholds have increased more rapidly over the past four decades than individual drivers, leading to ...

中文翻译：

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在1982年至2018年之间，山火司机的并发性增加，使南加州的大火严重危险天数增加了两倍

野火危险通常归因于温度升高，湿度降低，燃料更干燥或风速更高。但是，驱动程序的并发（定义为导致火灾增长的气候，气象和生物物理因素）很少用于常用的火灾危险指数或气候变化研究。如果因果因素作为一系列共同调节火势增长的开关相互作用，则将因果因素视为独立的累加影响可能导致关于转移危险的错误推论。作为证据，我们表明，在南加州，非常大的火灾和“特大火灾”与同时超过中度阈值的多个驱动因素更紧密相关，而不是与单个驱动因素的极端强度或这些驱动因素的加总直接相关。