Reconstructions of the global mean annual temperature evolution during the Holocene yield conflicting results. One temperature reconstruction shows global cooling during the late Holocene. The other reconstruction reveals global warming. Here we show that both a global warming mode and a cooling mode emerge when performing a spatio-temporal analysis of annual temperature variability during the Holocene using data from a transient climate model simulation. The warming mode is most pronounced in the tropics. The simulated cooling mode is determined by changes in the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice that are forced by orbital variations and volcanic eruptions. The warming mode dominates in the mid-Holocene, whereas the cooling mode takes over in the late Holocene. The weighted sum of the two modes yields the simulated global temperature trend evolution. Our findings have strong implications for the interpretation of proxy data and the selection of proxy locations to compute global mean temperatures.

对全新世期间全球年平均温度演化的重建产生了相互矛盾的结果。一项温度重建显示了全新世晚期的全球变冷。另一项重建揭示了全球变暖。在这里，我们表明，使用瞬态气候模型模拟的数据对全新世期间的年度温度变化进行时空分析时，会出现全球变暖模式和变冷模式。变暖模式在热带地区最为明显。模拟的冷却模式是由轨道变化和火山喷发造成的北极海冰季节性周期的变化决定的。全新世中期以增暖模式为主，全新世晚期以变冷模式为主。两种模式的加权和得出模拟的全球温度趋势演变。我们的研究结果对于代理数据的解释和计算全球平均温度的代理位置的选择具有重要意义。