ABSTRACT

The increasing reliance of modern science in computer simulation demands appropriate trust in simulation models for credible results. Because of its foundations in operations research, model credibility is conventionally viewed from the lens of numerical and transformational accuracy. However, the exploratory use of models in scientific discovery, causal explanation, and strategic decision-making render this view incomplete. Recognising the significance of the cognitive interests of model users and the context-sensitive, adaptive nature of building confidence in scientific models, we characterise credibility as trust. Appropriate and justifiable trust is conceptualised as a dynamic, cognitive construct that evolves through interactive, experiential learning. Following the delineation of the dimensions and attributes of trust, conceptual foundations of a dynamic trust model, including alternative measurement strategies, are proposed. Guidelines for trustable models are elaborated to provide a basis for exploiting synergies between the cognitive models of trust and model evaluation.

摘要

现代科学对计算机模拟的日益依赖要求对模拟模型的适当信任以获得可信的结果。由于其在运筹学中的基础，模型可信度通常从数值和转换精度的角度来看待。然而，模型在科学发现、因果解释和战略决策中的探索性使用使得这种观点不完整。认识到模型用户认知兴趣的重要性以及在科学模型中建立信心的上下文敏感、适应性性质，我们将可信度描述为信任。适当和合理的信任被概念化为一种动态的、认知的结构，它通过互动、体验式学习而发展。在划分信任的维度和属性之后，提出了动态信任模型的概念基础，包括替代测量策略。详细阐述了可信赖模型的指导方针，为利用信任的认知模型和模型评估之间的协同作用提供基础。