Large accidents throughout the 20th century marked the development of safety fields in engineering, devoted to better identify hazards, understand risks and properly manage them. As these fields evolved rather quickly and moved from a compliance to a risk-based approach, a significant delay in this transition was experienced in fire safety engineering (FSE). Devastating fires well into the 21st century and the restrictive nature of prescriptive codes signaled the need to transition towards a performance-based one. A performance-based approach provides flexibility and capitalizes on learning from accidental events and engineering disciplines such as process safety and FSE. This work provides an overview of the main alternatives to account for uncertainty in safety studies within the context of FSE, including traditional probabilistic analyses and emerging approaches such as strength of knowledge. A simple example is used to illustrate the impact of the uncertainty analysis on the results of a simple fire safety assessment. A structured evaluation is performed on each alternative to assess its ease of implementation and communication. The outcome is a compendium of advantages and disadvantages of the alternatives that constitute a toolbox for fire safety engineers to configure and use within their fire risk assessments. Process safety engineers are expected to gain an understanding of the similar and important challenges of FSE, being it directly relevant for process risk management and fire risk management in administrative buildings.

整个20世纪的大事故标志着工程安全领域的发展，致力于更好地识别危害，理解风险并进行适当管理。随着这些领域的迅速发展并从合规性转变为基于风险的方法，消防安全工程（FSE）经历了重大过渡。毁灭性的大火已经蔓延到21世纪，而规范性代码的局限性表明需要向基于性能的代码过渡。基于性能的方法提供了灵活性，并利用了从意外事件和工程学科（例如过程安全和FSE）中学习的经验。这项工作概述了解决FSE背景下的安全性研究不确定性的主要方法，包括传统的概率分析和新兴方法，例如知识强度。一个简单的例子用来说明不确定性分析对简单的消防安全评估结果的影响。对每个替代方案都进行了结构化评估，以评估其实施和沟通的便利性。结果是替代方案的优缺点摘要，这些替代方案构成了消防安全工程师在其火灾风险评估中配置和使用的工具箱。流程安全工程师应了解FSE的相似和重要挑战，因为它与行政大楼的流程风险管理和火灾风险管理直接相关。一个简单的例子用来说明不确定性分析对简单的消防安全评估结果的影响。对每个替代方案都进行了结构化评估，以评估其实施和沟通的难易程度。结果是替代方案的优缺点摘要，这些替代方案构成了消防安全工程师在其火灾风险评估中配置和使用的工具箱。流程安全工程师应了解FSE的相似和重要挑战，因为它与行政大楼的流程风险管理和火灾风险管理直接相关。一个简单的例子用来说明不确定性分析对简单的消防安全评估结果的影响。对每个替代方案都进行了结构化评估，以评估其实施和沟通的便利性。结果是替代方案的优缺点摘要，这些替代方案构成了消防安全工程师在其火灾风险评估中配置和使用的工具箱。流程安全工程师应了解FSE的相似和重要挑战，因为它与行政大楼的流程风险管理和火灾风险管理直接相关。结果是替代方案的优缺点摘要，这些替代方案构成了消防安全工程师在其火灾风险评估中配置和使用的工具箱。流程安全工程师应了解FSE的相似和重要挑战，因为它与行政大楼的流程风险管理和火灾风险管理直接相关。结果是替代方案的优缺点摘要，这些替代方案构成了消防安全工程师在其火灾风险评估中配置和使用的工具箱。流程安全工程师应了解FSE的相似和重要挑战，因为它与行政大楼的流程风险管理和火灾风险管理直接相关。