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Enhancement of the polynomial functions response surface model for real-time analyzing ozone sensitivity
Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering ( IF 6.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-10 , DOI: 10.1007/s11783-020-1323-0
Jiangbo Jin , Yun Zhu , Jicheng Jang , Shuxiao Wang , Jia Xing , Pen-Chi Chiang , Shaojia Fan , Shicheng Long

Quantification of the nonlinearities between ambient ozone (O3) and the emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compound (VOC) is a prerequisite for an effective O3 control strategy. An Enhanced polynomial functions Response Surface Model (Epf-RSM) with the capability to analyze O3-NOx-VOC sensitivities in real time was developed by integrating the hill-climbing adaptive method into the optimized Extended Response Surface Model (ERSM) system. The Epf-RSM could single out the best suited polynomial function for each grid cell to quantify the responses of O3 concentrations to precursor emission changes. Several comparisons between Epf-RSM and pf-ERSM (polynomial functions based ERSM) were performed using out-of-sample validation, together with comparisons of the spatial distribution and the Empirical Kinetic Modeling Approach diagrams. The comparison results showed that Epf-RSM effectively addressed the drawbacks of pf-ERSM with respect to over-fitting in the margin areas and high biases in the transition areas. The O3 concentrations predicted by Epf-RSM agreed well with Community Multi-scale Air Quality simulation results. The case study results in the Pearl River Delta and the north-western area of the Shandong province indicated that the O3 formations in the central areas of both the regions were more sensitive to anthropogenic VOC in January, April, and October, while more NOx-sensitive in July.



中文翻译:

用于实时分析臭氧敏感性的多项式函数响应面模型的增强

量化环境臭氧(O 3)与氮氧化物(NO x)和挥发性有机化合物(VOC)排放之间的非线性是有效控制O 3的先决条件。通过将爬山自适应方法集成到优化的扩展响应表面模型(ERSM)系统中,开发了具有实时分析O 3 -NO x -VOC敏感性的增强型多项式函数响应表面模型(Epf-RSM)。Epf-RSM可以为每个网格单元选择最适合的多项式函数,以量化O 3的响应前驱体排放的浓度变化。使用样本外验证对Epf-RSM和pf-ERSM(基于多项式函数的ERSM)进行了几次比较,并比较了空间分布和经验动力学建模方法图。比较结果表明,Epf-RSM有效地解决了pf-ERSM在边缘区域的过度拟合和过渡区域的高偏差方面的弊端。Epf-RSM预测的O 3浓度与社区多尺度空气质量模拟结果非常吻合。在珠江三角洲和山东省西北地区的案例研究结果表明,O 3在这两个区域的中心区域的形成是在一月,四月,十月人为VOC更敏感,而更多的NO X在七月敏感的。

更新日期:2020-09-20
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