Climate change could increase the frequency and duration of droughts that affect Mexico. This is particularly worrisome because many agricultural communities in the country are poor and with limited capacities for adaptation. This study estimated the impact of droughts on rural households’ wellbeing in Mexico, specifically on per capita earnings, poverty, and children’s school attendance. To do this, we focused our empirical analysis on the effects of the 2011 drought, one of the worst droughts that have affected Mexico in the past 70 years. Our results provide clear evidence that droughts have a negative impact on rural households’ wellbeing. Households that experienced a drought had lower per capita earnings and were almost 5 percentage points more likely to be poor after the drought than their counterparts. Furthermore, droughts reduced female employment and male school attendance in almost three percentage points. Our results also provide indirect evidence showing that households that are less familiar with relative water scarcity are the ones that are hit hardest during droughts. Droughts are poised to become an additional threat to the wellbeing of rural Mexican households.

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干旱和农村家庭的福祉：来自墨西哥的证据

气候变化可能会增加影响墨西哥的干旱的频率和持续时间。这尤其令人担忧，因为该国许多农业社区都很贫穷，适应能力有限。这项研究估计了干旱对墨西哥农村家庭福祉的影响，特别是对人均收入、贫困和儿童入学率的影响。为此，我们将实证分析重点放在了 2011 年干旱的影响上，这是过去 70 年来影响墨西哥的最严重的干旱之一。我们的研究结果提供了明确的证据，表明干旱对农村家庭的福祉产生了负面影响。经历过干旱的家庭人均收入较低，干旱后陷入贫困的可能性比其他家庭高出近 5 个百分点。此外，干旱使女性就业和男性入学率降低了近三个百分点。我们的结果还提供了间接证据，表明不太熟悉相对缺水的家庭在干旱期间受灾最严重。干旱有望成为对墨西哥农村家庭福祉的额外威胁。