There is a good chance for Indonesia, the largest archipelagic state in the world, to contribute to climate change mitigation effort by optimizing the ‘regulating and maintenance’ ecosystem service in the form of ‘blue carbon’ function provided by mangrove and seagrass. These so called ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems have 3-5 times capacity of storing and sequestering carbon compared to terrestrial vegetation. This paper attempts to provide the estimation of baseline or Business as Usual (BAU) scenario for blue carbon ecosystems which would be required if formal emission inventory of ‘blue carbon’ ecosystems is to be implemented. The result shows mangrove degradation occurs both during base years of 2000 - 2016 and during the projected emission period of 2017 - 2030. Mangrove conversion to aquaculture pond is the main cause of degradation, contributing up to 72.50 % of the total carbon emission. Blue carbon climate change mitigation by mangrove rehabilitation can only reduce up to 6 % of carbon emission from baseline in 2030. Significant emission reduction of 73,38% from BAU emission in 2030 can only be achieved through integration of mangrove rehabilitation, silvofishery practice and the prevention of mangrove conversion to other land-uses.

作为世界上最大的群岛国家，印度尼西亚很有可能通过优化红树林和海草提供的“蓝碳”功能形式的“调节和维护”生态系统服务，为减缓气候变化做出贡献。与陆地植被相比，这些所谓的“蓝碳”生态系统具有 3-5 倍的碳储存和封存能力。本文试图为蓝碳生态系统提供基线或照常业务 (BAU) 情景的估计，如果要实施“蓝碳”生态系统的正式排放清单，则需要这些情景。结果表明，红树林退化发生在 2000 - 2016 年的基准年和 2017 - 2030 年的预计排放期。红树林转化为水产养殖池塘是退化的主要原因，占总碳排放量的 72.50%。通过红树林恢复减缓蓝碳气候变化到 2030 年只能从基线减少 6% 的碳排放量。2030 年 BAU 排放量的 73.38% 的显着减排只能通过红树林恢复、森林渔业实践和防止红树林转变为其他土地用途。