Brian Arthur’s El Farol bar model of bounded rationality provides a simple computer model of decision making in a complex, dynamic, and self-organized environment. Can systems thinking provide a viable alternative strategy to traditional methods for dealing with these types of problems? Nine different agents, designed from both traditional and systems perspectives, compete in fifteen variants of the El Farol environment and their performance in 4 categories—Winner, Top Performers, Competitive, and Vulnerable—is compared. We show that systems thinking is a competitive strategy that is, at least, on par with traditional strategies and may be less vulnerable to elimination or ruin. However, there are two consequential elements that emerge. First, all strategies have some environments where they succeed and others where they fail. Second, as the population of practitioners adopts these adaptive, systems-based strategies, the environment exhibits new behaviors with a new set of unintended consequences.

中文翻译：

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有限理性下的模拟系统思考

布莱恩·亚瑟（Brian Arthur）的有限理性的El Farol条形模型为复杂，动态和自组织的环境中的决策提供了简单的计算机模型。系统思维能否为传统方法提供可行的替代策略来处理这些类型的问题？从传统和系统角度设计的九种不同代理在El Farol环境的十五种变体中竞争，并且比较了它们在四个类别中的表现（优胜者，表现最佳者，竞争者和脆弱者）。我们表明，系统思考是一种竞争策略，至少与传统策略相当，并且较不容易消除或破坏。但是，出现了两个相应的因素。首先，所有策略都有成功的环境和失败的环境。第二，