Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

汞 (Hg) 是一种天然存在的元素，可与有机物结合，当转化为甲基汞时，是一种强效的神经毒剂。在这里，我们使用机械模型估计了在低温室气体排放情景和高温室气体排放情景下永久冻土融化后潜在的汞释放。到 2200 年，高排放情景显示每年向大气中排放的永久冻土汞排放量与当前的全球人为排放量相当。到 2100 年，育空河中的模拟汞浓度在低排放情景下增加了 14%，但在高排放情景下增加了一倍。到 2300 年，鱼类汞浓度不会超过美国环境保护署关于低排放情景的指导方针，但对于高排放情景，育空河中的鱼类到 2050 年将超过 EPA 指导方针。