Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World’s largest lizard from global warming,Ecology and Evolution

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Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World’s largest lizard from global warming
Ecology and Evolution ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-15 , DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6705
Alice R Jones _{1,

2} , Tim S Jessop _{3,

4} , Achmad Ariefiandy ₄ , Barry W Brook ₅ , Stuart C Brown ₁ , Claudio Ciofi _{4,

6} , Yunias Jackson Benu ₇ , Deni Purwandana ₄ , Tamen Sitorus ₈ , Tom M L Wigley _{1,

9} , Damien A Fordham ₁

Affiliation

The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island‐endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea‐level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species’ future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range‐wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%–87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%–97% and declines of 27%–99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands’ status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.

中文翻译：

确定岛屿安全港，以防止世界上最大的蜥蜴因全球变暖而灭绝

科莫多巨蜥（ Varanus komodoensis ）是一种濒临灭绝的岛屿特有物种，其自然分布受到限制。尽管如此，之前没有研究试图预测气候变化对这一标志性物种的影响。我们使用大量的科莫多龙监测数据、气候和海平面变化预测来为科莫多龙建立空间明确的人口模型。这些模型预测了多种气候变化情景下物种的未来范围和丰度。我们使用不同的模型参数进行了超过一百万次模型模拟，使我们能够纳入来自三个主要来源的不确定性：(a) 全球气候模型的结构，(b) 温室气体排放轨迹的选择，以及 (c) 科莫多巨蜥的估计人口统计参数。我们的模型预测，到 2050 年，科莫多巨蜥栖息地范围将减少 8%–87%，导致栖息地斑块占用率减少 25%–97%，整个物种范围内的丰富度下降 27%–99% 。我们表明，科莫多国家公园两个最大的受保护岛屿（林卡岛和科莫多岛）灭绝的风险低于其他岛屿种群，为全球变暖下的科莫多巨蜥提供了重要的安全避难所。鉴于科莫多巨蜥栖息地占用（占用面积的代表）和丰富程度的预测变化的严重程度和速度，需要采取紧急保护行动以避免灭绝风险。作为优先事项，这些应侧重于管理科莫多岛和林卡岛的栖息地，反映这些岛屿在变暖的世界中作为该物种的重要避难所的地位。我们的模型预测的可变性凸显了在模拟气候变化下物种种群动态时考虑人口和环境参数、全球气候模型的结构假设以及温室气体排放情景的不确定性的重要性。

更新日期：2020-10-12

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