Fatigue damage accumulation model plays a critical role in life prediction and anti-fatigue design of material. It is still a challenging issue to accurately quantify its development process and probabilistic characteristics. In this study, a probabilistic model of fatigue damage accumulation is presented based on Weibull distribution and reliability analysis theory. Firstly, the general rule of fatigue damage accumulation is analyzed, and three basic assumptions about fatigue life and fatigue damage are drawn. Subsequently, two typical fatigue reliability analysis models are elaborated, and a probabilistic model of fatigue damage accumulation is proposed based on the principle of failure probability equivalence. Finally, three sets of experimental data of aluminum alloy are utilized to verify the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model is capable of quantifying the dynamic probability characteristics of fatigue damage accumulation. Moreover, the proposed model has high calculation accuracy, and it can be easily established based on fatigue life data of material.

疲劳损伤累积模型在材料的寿命预测和抗疲劳设计中起着至关重要的作用。准确地量化其开发过程和概率特征仍然是一个具有挑战性的问题。本文基于威布尔分布和可靠性分析理论，提出了疲劳损伤累积的概率模型。首先，分析了疲劳损伤累积的一般规律，得出了疲劳寿命和疲劳损伤的三个基本假设。随后，阐述了两种典型的疲劳可靠性分析模型，并基于失效概率等效原理提出了疲劳损伤累积的概率模型。最后，利用三组铝合金实验数据验证了该模型。结果表明，该模型能够量化疲劳损伤累积的动态概率特征。此外，该模型具有较高的计算精度，并且可以根据材料的疲劳寿命数据轻松建立模型。