Journal of Theoretical Biology ( IF 2 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2020.110453 Yongli Cai 1 , Shi Zhao 2 , Yun Niu 3 , Zhihang Peng 4 , Kai Wang 5 , Daihai He 6 , Weiming Wang 1
Tuberculosis (TB) is still an important public health issue in Jiangsu province, China. In this study, based on the TB transmission routes and the statistical data of TB cases, we formulate a novel TB epidemic model accounting for the effects of the contaminated environments on TB transmission dynamics. The value of this study lies in two aspects. Mathematically, we define the basic reproduction number, , and prove that can be used to govern the threshold dynamics of the model. Epidemiologically, we find that the annual average is and TB in Jiangsu is an endemic disease. Therefore, in order to control the TB in Jiangsu efficiently, we must decrease the virus shedding rate or increase the recovery rates, and increase the environmental clearance rate.
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