Community banks have been in decline for decades in the U.S. yet are valuable because they often provide small business lending that larger banks avoid. This study may shed light on whether a severe economic contraction following a natural disaster, such as that due to the COVID-19 pandemic, will further contribute to that decline, using data on hurricanes followed by economic contraction or growth. For the analysis, U.S. counties hit by severe hurricanes between 2004 and 2012 are identified and differentiated according to whether there was substantial employment decline from the year prior to the year after the hurricane. Bank offices in these counties are tracked for seven years in terms of stayers, leavers, and new offices owned by community or large banks. The results reveal that areas with substantial employment decline are associated with higher rates of persistence and new openings among the community banks. Where hurricanes were followed by less severe contraction or economic growth, larger banks held an advantage in terms of both persistence and new offices. It is suggested that the value of soft information held by community banks is enhanced by severe adversity.

社区银行在美国已经衰落了几十年，但是却很有价值，因为社区银行通常提供大型银行避免的小企业贷款。这项研究可能利用飓风后的经济紧缩或增长数据，揭示自然灾害后严重的经济紧缩（例如由于COVID-19大流行造成的紧缩）是否会进一步助长这一下降。为了进行分析，根据2004年至2012年遭受严重飓风袭击的美国县，从飓风发生后一年的前一年是否有大幅下降的情况来进行识别和区分。这些县的银行办公室在居民，离职人员以及社区或大型银行拥有的新办公室方面的追踪时间为7年。结果表明，就业率大幅下降的地区与社区银行的较高的持久性和新的开设机会有关。在飓风过后，紧缩或经济增长不那么严重的地区，大型银行在持久性和新办公室方面都占有优势。建议通过严重的逆境来提高社区银行拥有的软信息的价值。