Abstract Weak forest governance is posited as a key underlying driver of deforestation and forest degradation, but empirical evidence of this linkage is scarce. Many related studies capture the de jure (legal) conditions and miss out the de facto (implementation practices on the ground), particularly when considering the proximate drivers and other factors of deforestation. However, this is central for identifying the specifics of governance for curbing deforestation and forest degradation. We analyse the influence of de facto governance quality on deforestation, accounting for proximate drivers and other factors using stepwise regression. We further compare deforestation rates and drivers across different governance arrangements with differing institutions, tenure and forest access restrictions using Wilcoxon tests to derive conclusions for promising policy instruments that address deforestation. Data for the analysis were obtained through participatory mapping, focus group discussions and geographical information systems. To generate empirical evidence, 238,296 ha of land were mapped within 24 communities spanning three provinces, Copperbelt, North-Western and Eastern, in the Zambian Miombo. Regression results revealed that de facto governance quality has some effect but proximate drivers particularly charcoal production, crop agriculture and proximity to roads explain most of the deforestation patterns in the Zambian Miombo. Those drivers seem hardly affected by the weak governance processes. Since scores of governance quality were in general low and hardly varying, we conclude that in our case they were too weak to show effects on the proximate drivers. Only the governance indicator ‘local government capacity and effectiveness’ although still weak, was significantly linked to low deforestation rates. Comparative results further showed that restricted arrangements (state and traditionally restricted) exhibit lower deforestation than non-restricted arrangements (communal, forests with overlapping community claims, private and individual customary forests). But while crop agriculture was negligible, forest resource extraction was still substantial in restricted state forests, indicating a higher possibility for forest degradation instead. Although private and individual customary forests had higher tenure security, they showed higher deforestation rates than communal and state arrangements. This challenges the notion that tenure security alone guarantees successful forest conservation. Our results suggest that governance can only affect deforestation drivers positively above certain thresholds. This needs to be further complemented by specific measures such as sustainable production systems, incentives and alternative livelihoods to regulate the proximate and other underlying drivers of deforestation.

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事实上的治理能否影响赞比亚米奥博的森林砍伐驱动因素？

摘要 薄弱的森林治理被认为是森林砍伐和森林退化的关键潜在驱动因素，但这种联系的经验证据很少。许多相关研究捕捉了法律上的（法律）条件，而忽略了事实上的（实地实施实践），特别是在考虑森林砍伐的直接驱动因素和其他因素时。然而，这对于确定遏制森林砍伐和森林退化的治理细节至关重要。我们使用逐步回归分析了事实上的治理质量对森林砍伐的影响，考虑了近似驱动因素和其他因素。我们进一步比较了不同机构的不同治理安排的森林砍伐率和驱动因素，使用 Wilcoxon 测试得出有前景的解决森林砍伐问题的政策工具的结论。分析数据是通过参与式制图、焦点小组讨论和地理信息系统获得的。为了产生经验证据，在赞比亚 Miombo 的铜带、西北和东部三个省的 24 个社区内绘制了 238,296 公顷的土地地图。回归结果显示，事实上的治理质量有一些影响，但直接的驱动因素，特别是木炭生产、农作物和靠近道路，解释了赞比亚 Miombo 的大部分森林砍伐模式。这些驱动因素似乎几乎不受薄弱治理流程的影响。由于治理质量得分普遍较低且几乎没有变化，我们得出的结论是，在我们的案例中，它们太弱而无法显示对邻近驱动程序的影响。只有治理指标“地方政府能力和有效性”虽然仍然很弱，但与低森林砍伐率显着相关。比较结果进一步表明，限制性安排（国家和传统限制性）的森林砍伐率低于非限制性安排（公共、具有重叠社区要求的森林、私人和个人习惯森林）。但是，虽然作物农业可以忽略不计，但在受限制的国有森林中，森林资源的开采量仍然很大，这表明森林退化的可能性更大。尽管私人和个人习惯林具有更高的保有权保障，但与公共和国家安排相比，它们的森林砍伐率更高。这挑战了仅靠使用权保障就可以保证成功的森林保护的观念。我们的结果表明，治理只能对超过特定阈值的森林砍伐驱动因素产生积极影响。这需要通过可持续生产系统、激励措施和替代生计等具体措施进一步补充，以规范森林砍伐的直接和其他潜在驱动因素。