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Methodology for integrated modelling and impact assessment of city energy system scenarios
Energy Strategy Reviews ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-16 , DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2020.100553
Iñigo Muñoz , Patxi Hernández , Estibaliz Pérez-Iribarren , Juan Pedrero , Eneko Arrizabalaga , Nekane Hermoso

Cities are ought to play a key role in the energy transition to a low carbon society as they concentrate more than half of the world's population and are responsible for about 67% primary energy consumption and around 70% of the energy-related CO2 emissions. To achieve the agreed climate targets, efficient urban planning is a must. Tools and methods have risen to model different aspects of the energy performance of urban areas. Nevertheless, addressing the complexity of a city energy system is a great challenge and new integrated tools and methods are still needed. This paper presents a methodology for integrated city energy modelling and assessment, from the characterization of the city's current energy performance to the development and assessment of future scenarios. Energy characterization is based on the combination of bottom-up approaches with top-down data to establish the city's energy baseline. This baseline integrates bottom-up results from a GIS based model which is used to characterize the city's building stock energy performance, while available information on the vehicle stock is used to model the mobility sector. Scenarios are developed from this baseline and assessed through a multi-criteria impact assessment model. A simplified case study is carried out for the city of Valencia (Spain) to demonstrate the suggested methodology, and results are shown for three different scenarios: one focused on the building sector, one on transport, and one combining measures in both sectors. The transport-focused scenario demonstrates to be the most favourable in terms of energy savings and emissions reductions. The application of the proposed method is intended to support the development of strategies and plans for energy transition at city level. The main challenges for its application in cities are data availability at urban level, the uncertainty related to modelling the transport sector, and the unavailability of adapted I/O tables at city scale to assess socioeconomic impacts.



中文翻译:

城市能源系统情景综合建模和影响评估的方法

城市应该在向低碳社会的能源转型中发挥关键作用,因为它们集中了全球一半以上的人口,并负责约67%的一次能源消耗和约70%的与能源有关的CO 2排放。为了实现商定的气候目标,必须进行有效的城市规划。已经出现了用于对城市地区能源绩效的不同方面进行建模的工具和方法。然而,解决城市能源系统的复杂性是一个巨大的挑战,仍然需要新的集成工具和方法。本文介绍了从城市当前能源绩效的表征到未来情景的开发和评估的综合城市能源建模和评估的方法。能源表征基于自下而上的方法与自上而下的数据的组合,以建立城市的能源基准。此基准整合了基于GIS的模型的自下而上的结果,该模型用于表征城市的建筑存量能源绩效,而有关车辆库存的可用信息则用于对交通部门进行建模。从此基准开始制定方案,并通过多标准影响评估模型进行评估。对瓦伦西亚市(西班牙)进行了简化的案例研究,以证明所建议的方法,并针对三种不同的情况显示了结果:一种针对建筑行业,一种针对交通运输,以及两种行业的综合措施。就节能和减少排放而言,以运输为重点的方案被证明是最有利的。拟议方法的应用旨在支持城市一级能源过渡战略和计划的发展。其在城市中的应用面临的主要挑战是城市一级的数据可用性,

更新日期:2020-09-16
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