The national policy in Japan for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the residential sector by 2030 is evaluated using a bottom-up-type simulation model called the Total Residential End-use Energy Simulation (TREES) model. According to the Japanese Plan for Global Warming Countermeasures (PGWC), the target GHG reduction in the residential sector is expected to be realized through the aggregated effect of various mitigation measures. In evaluating the impact of these measures, the following three factors must be considered: occupant behavior, differences in the effect among households, and secondary impacts. In this paper, to discuss the required specifications for supporting the policies related to GHG reduction, these factors are examined via the TREES model, considering the differences in the energy use among households due to occupant behavior, appliance/equipment ownership, and building energy efficiency. The simulation results of the end-use energy in the Japanese residential sector in 2013 show good agreement with available statistical values. The results of the TREES model applied to evaluate the proposed countermeasures suggest that 1) The Japanese government may be overestimating the effect of high-efficiency lighting installations, 2) The reduction in the total energy use varies by a factor of two depending on the combination of high-efficiency water heaters and household characteristics, 3) The relationship between the types of water heater and space heating system influences the effect of high-efficiency water heater installations, and 4) Energy demand reduction affects the electricity load curve and CO₂ emission intensity of the electricity grid.

日本采用自下而上型模拟模型（称为总住宅最终用途能源模拟（TREES）模型）评估了日本到2030年减少住宅部门温室气体（GHG）排放的国家政策。根据日本《全球变暖对策计划》（PGWC），通过各种缓解措施的综合效应，有望实现住宅部门目标温室气体减排。在评估这些措施的影响时，必须考虑以下三个因素：居住者的行为，家庭之间的影响差异以及次要影响。在本文中，为了讨论支持与温室气体减排相关的政策所需的规范，我们通过TREES模型研究了这些因素，考虑由于居住者的行为，家用电器/设备的所有权以及建筑能效而导致的家庭之间的能源使用差异。2013年日本住宅领域最终用途能源的模拟结果与可用的统计值显示出良好的一致性。用于评估拟议对策的TREES模型的结果表明：1）日本政府可能高估了高效照明装置的效果； 2）总能耗的减少因两者而异，相差两倍3）热水器类型与空间供暖系统之间的关系会影响高效热水器的安装效果，₂电网的发射强度。