Casing corrosion during CO₂ injection or storage results in significant economic loss and increased production risks. Therefore, in this paper, a corroded casing risk assessment model based on analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is established to identify potential risks in time. First, the corrosion rate and residual strength characteristics are analyzed through corrosion tests and numerical simulations, respectively, to determine the risk factors that may lead to an accident. Then, an index system for corroded casing risk evaluation is established based on six important factors: temperature, CO₂ partial pressure, flow velocity, corrosion radius, corrosion depth and wellhead pressure. Subsequently, the index weights are calculated via the analytic hierarchy process. Finally, the risk level of corroded casing is obtained via the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. The corroded casing risk assessment model has been verified by a case well, which shows that the model is valuable and feasible. It provides an effective decision-making method for the risk evaluation of corroded casing in CO₂ injection well, which is conductive to improve the wellbore operation efficiency.

注入或储存CO ₂期间的套管腐蚀会导致重大的经济损失并增加生产风险。因此，本文建立了基于层次分析法和模糊综合评价的腐蚀套管风险评估模型，以及时识别潜在风险。首先，分别通过腐蚀测试和数值模拟来分析腐蚀速率和残余强度特征，以确定可能导致事故的风险因素。然后，基于温度，CO ₂六个重要因素，建立了腐蚀套管风险评估指标体系。分压，流速，腐蚀半径，腐蚀深度和井口压力。随后，通过分析层次结构过程计算索引权重。最后，通过模糊综合评价得出腐蚀套管的风险等级。实例验证了腐蚀后的套管风险评估模型的有效性，表明该模型是有价值和可行的。为CO ₂注入井中腐蚀套管的风险评估提供了有效的决策方法，有利于提高井筒作业效率。