The transportation sector is at the beginning of a transition represented by electrification, shared mobility, and automation, which could lead to either increases or decreases in total travel and energy use. Understanding the factors enabling deep decarbonization of the passenger vehicle sector is essential for planning the required infrastructure investments and technology adoption policies. We examine the requirements for meeting carbon reduction targets of 80% and higher for passenger vehicle transport in the United States (US) by midcentury under uncertainty. We model the changes needed in vehicle electrification, electricity carbon intensity, and travel demand. Since growth in fleet penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) is constrained by fleet stock turnover, we estimate the EV penetration rates needed to meet climate targets. We find for a base case level of passenger vehicle travel, midcentury deep decarbonization of US passenger transport is conditional on reducing the...

中文翻译：

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在电气化和自动化不确定性的情况下，对美国乘用车运输进行脱碳有旅行预算

运输行业正处于以电气化，共享出行和自动化为代表的转型的开始，这可能导致总旅行和能源使用量的增加或减少。了解导致乘用车行业实现深度脱碳的因素，对于规划所需的基础设施投资和技术采用政策至关重要。在不确定性的情况下，我们研究了到本世纪中叶美国在乘用车运输中实现80％或更高的碳减排目标的要求。我们对汽车电气化，电力碳强度和出行需求方面的变化进行建模。由于电动汽车（EV）的车队渗透率的增长受到车队库存周转的限制，因此我们估算了实现气候目标所需的EV渗透率。