Increased aridity and drought risks are significant global concerns. However, there are few comprehensive studies on the related risks with regard to the differences between relatively weak levels of warming, including the recent targets of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) of 1.5 °C or 2 °C. The present study investigates the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming on aridification and their non-linearity based on the relationship between available water and energy at the Earth’s terrestrial surface. Large multi-model ensembles with a 4000-model-year in total are sourced from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis, and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. Results demonstrate that 2 °C warming results in more frequent dry states in the Amazon Basin, western Europe, and southern Africa, and a limited warming to 1.5 °C will mitigate aridification and increase the frequency of extreme dry-year in these regions. In the Mediterranean region, a signi...

中文翻译：

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在1.5°C和2°C变暖之间，由于表面能和水平衡的差异，导致全球干旱变化

干旱和干旱风险增加是全球关注的重大问题。但是，关于相对较弱的变暖水平之间差异的相关风险的综合研究很少，包括《联合国气候变化框架公约》（UNFCCC）最近设定的1.5°C或2°C的目标。本研究基于地球表面可用水和能量之间的关系，研究了1.5°C和2°C变暖对干旱化及其非线性的影响。总共有4000个模型年的大型多模型合奏来自“半度附加变暖，预后和预计影响”（HAPPI）项目。结果表明，在亚马逊河流域，西欧和南部非洲，2°C的升温导致干旱状态更加频繁，而升温到1的程度受到限制。5°C将减轻干旱现象，并增加这些地区极端干旱年份的频率。在地中海地区，一个重要的...