Rapid urbanization on a global scale leads to a number of issues such as arable land occupation and ecological degradation. In this context, analyzing the driving mechanism of urban land expansion in complex urban systems facilitates sustainable urban development. Most relevant studies focused on the role of each driving factor and less considered the interaction between different factors spatially and temporally. In order to provide a deep insight into the complex driving mechanism of urban expansion, this study began with an analysis of the spatio-temporal characteristics of urban expansion in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) urban agglomeration in different periods. Then, the driving mechanism of urban expansion intensity (UEI) and urban expansion landscape pattern were analyzed, based on the interaction of different driving factors over space and time. The result showed as follows. (1) During the period of 2000–2008, the overall UEI in the PRD was higher than that of the period of 2008–2015. From 2000 to 2015, the most important source of urban land expansion was farmland, followed by forest land. Meanwhile, the decline in the proportion of outlying expansion type indicated that the urban land has gradually become more compact. (2) From 2000 to 2015, the socio-economic factors had a greater effect on UEI than natural factors. And the interaction between the pairs of factors on UEI during 2000–2008 was significantly stronger than that during 2008–2015. (3) The driving factors of the urban landscape expansion index during the period from 2008 to 2015 were far more powerful than 2000–2008. And the interaction between the pairs of factors on urban landscape expansion index during 2000–2008 was significantly stronger than that during 2008–2015.

中文翻译：

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城市扩张的时空特征及其复杂驱动机制分析-以珠江三角洲城市群为例

全球范围内快速的城市化导致许多问题，例如耕地占用和生态退化。在这种情况下，分析复杂城市系统中城市土地扩张的驱动机制有助于城市的可持续发展。最相关的研究集中于每个驱动因素的作用，而较少考虑时空上不同因素之间的相互作用。为了深入了解城市扩张的复杂驱动机制，本研究首先分析了珠江三角洲（PRD）城市群在不同时期的城市扩张的时空特征。然后，分析了城市扩张强度（UEI）和城市扩张景观格局的驱动机制，基于不同驱动因素在空间和时间上的相互作用。结果如下。（1）在2000–2008年期间，珠三角的整体UEI高于2008–2015年期间。从2000年到2015年，城市土地扩张的最重要来源是农田，其次是林地。同时，外围扩展类型所占比例的下降表明城市土地已逐渐变得更加紧凑。（2）从2000年到2015年，社会经济因素对UEI的影响大于自然因素。而且2000-2008年期间UEI的成对因素之间的相互作用明显强于2008-2015年期间。（3）2008-2015年期间城市景观扩展指数的驱动因素远比2000-2008年强大。