Hardware, systems and algorithms research communities have historically had different incentive structures and fluctuating motivation to engage with each other explicitly. This historical treatment is odd given that hardware and software have frequently determined which research ideas succeed (and fail). This essay introduces the term hardware lottery to describe when a research idea wins because it is suited to the available software and hardware and not because the idea is superior to alternative research directions. Examples from early computer science history illustrate how hardware lotteries can delay research progress by casting successful ideas as failures. These lessons are particularly salient given the advent of domain specialized hardware which make it increasingly costly to stray off of the beaten path of research ideas. This essay posits that the gains from progress in computing are likely to become even more uneven, with certain research directions moving into the fast-lane while progress on others is further obstructed.

中文翻译：

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硬件彩票

硬件、系统和算法研究社区历来有不同的激励结构和波动的动机来明确地相互交流。鉴于硬件和软件经常决定哪些研究想法成功（和失败），这种历史处理很奇怪。这篇文章引入了硬件抽签这个术语来描述一个研究想法何时获胜，因为它适合可用的软件和硬件，而不是因为这个想法优于其他研究方向。早期计算机科学历史中的例子说明了硬件彩票如何通过将成功的想法视为失败来延迟研究进展。考虑到领域专用硬件的出现，这些经验教训尤为突出，这使得偏离研究思路的常规道路成本越来越高。