ABSTRACT The endorheic basin of Zayandehrud in Iran suffers from environmental problems, social tensions, and economic instability. Lack of understanding how the water system and the socio-economic system interact may explain these challenges. A system dynamics model, being a holistic simulation tool, was developed for the Zayandehrud basin and used to evaluate several policy scenarios. The indices of employment, gross regional product, the volume of groundwater and surface water stored, flow into the basin’s end lake, and the water flow in the river were used to evaluate the scenarios. The findings demonstrate that focusing on supply-based activities or water demand management cannot solely improve the condition of the Zayandehrud basin. It is required to reconsider the development policies of the region in a broader context. Reducing the irrigated area by 15% and developing new industries up to a certain limit may make the combined water and socio-economic system sustainable.

中文翻译：

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模拟受压内陆盆地中水与社会经济系统之间的相互作用

摘要伊朗扎扬德赫鲁德内陆盆地饱受环境问题、社会紧张局势和经济不稳定的困扰。缺乏对水系统和社会经济系统如何相互作用的了解可以解释这些挑战。系统动力学模型是一种整体模拟工具，是为 Zayandehrud 盆地开发的，用于评估多种政策情景。就业、区域生产总值、地下水和地表水储存量、流入流域端湖和河流中的水流量等指标用于评估情景。调查结果表明，专注于基于供应的活动或水需求管理并不能单独改善 Zayandehrud 盆地的状况。需要在更广泛的背景下重新考虑该地区的发展政策。