Abstract

Risk assessment studies due to the renewed global concerns regarding the environment are more necessary than ever. Like this article, the ultimate goal of such studies is to protect the environment, reduce costs, and save time by utilizing better technologies of risk assessment. This article, first after evaluating activities and various processes of a power plant, identifies environmental risks, and potential human factors. Then, it applies two methods of Environmental Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (EFMEA) and Melbourne to conduct risk assessment. In the meanwhile, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP) are applied and combined with the methods toward a more logical and compatible analysis. In the model, weight of each activity is applied to Risk Priority Number (RPN). Results of combining AHP and FAHP with EFM & EA and Melbourne methods show that risks with same RPN get different values. Therefore, the proposed hybrid approach seems effective and could help more scientific decision-making. Moreover, the proposed hybrid methods compared to the original ones are more flexible and more realistic due to involving the experts’ knowledge more.

摘要

由于对环境的新的全球关注，对风险评估的研究比以往任何时候都更加必要。像本文一样，此类研究的最终目标是通过利用更好的风险评估技术来保护环境，降低成本并节省时间。本文首先对电厂的活动和各种过程进行了评估，然后确定了环境风险和潜在的人为因素。然后，它采用环境失效模式和影响分析（EFMEA）和墨尔本的两种方法进行风险评估。同时，应用层次分析法（AHP）和模糊层次分析法（FAHP），并将其与方法相结合，以实现更加逻辑和兼容的分析。在模型中，将每个活动的权重应用于“风险优先级数字”（RPN）。将AHP和FAHP与EFM和EA以及Melbourne方法相结合的结果表明，具有相同RPN的风险获得了不同的价值。因此，提出的混合方法似乎是有效的，并且可以帮助做出更科学的决策。而且，由于更多地吸收了专家的知识，因此与原始方法相比，所提出的混合方法更加灵活，更加现实。