This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy‐ESPC) coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to the subseasonal. Two configurations of the system are validated: (1) a low‐resolution 16‐member ensemble system and (2) a high‐resolution deterministic system. The Navy‐ESPC ensemble system became operational in August 2020, and this is the first time the NRL operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide global coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending past 16 days, and ocean and sea ice ensemble forecasts. A unique aspect of the Navy‐ESPC is that the global ocean model is eddy resolving at 1/12° in the ensemble and at 1/25° in the deterministic configurations. The component models are current Navy operational systems: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) for the atmosphere, HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean, and Community Ice CodE (CICE) for the sea ice. Physics updates to improve the simulation of equatorial phenomena, particularly the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), were introduced into NAVGEM. The low‐resolution ensemble configuration and high‐resolution deterministic configuration are evaluated based on analyses and forecasts from January 2017 to January 2018. Navy‐ESPC ensemble forecast skill for large‐scale atmospheric phenomena, such as the MJO, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and other indices, is comparable to that of other numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. Ensemble forecasts of ocean sea surface temperatures perform better than climatology in the tropics and midlatitudes out to 60 days. In addition, the Navy‐ESPC Pan‐Arctic and Pan‐Antarctic sea ice extent predictions perform better than climatology out to about 45 days, although the skill is dependent on season.

中文翻译：

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海军的地球系统预测能力：专为日常至亚季节预报设计的新型全球大气-海洋-海冰耦合预报系统

本文介绍了由海军研究实验室（NRL）开发的新的全球海军地球系统预测能力（Navy-ESPC）耦合的大气-海洋-海冰预测系统，用于对到亚季节天数的时间尺度的运行预测。验证了系统的两种配置：（1）低分辨率的16人集成系统和（2）高分辨率的确定性系统。海军-ESPC集成系统于2020年8月投入运行，这是NRL的运营伙伴“舰队数值气象和海洋学中心”首次提供全球大气海冰耦合预报，而大气预报的有效期将超过16天，以及海洋和海冰系综预报。Navy-ESPC的一个独特方面是，全球海洋模型的涡旋分辨率为集合中的1/12°，确定性配置中为1/25°。组件模型是当前的海军操作系统：用于大气层的NAVy全球环境模型（NAVGEM），用于海洋的Hybrid协调海洋模型（HYCOM）和用于海冰的Community Ice CodE（CICE）。NAVGEM中引入了物理改进以改善对赤道现象的模拟，特别是Madden-Julian振荡（MJO）。根据2017年1月至2018年1月的分析和预测，评估了低分辨率集合配置和高分辨率确定性配置。海军ESPC对大规模大气现象（例如MJO，北大西洋涛动（NAO））的集合预测技能，南极涛动（AAO），和其他指标，可以与其他数值天气预报（NWP）中心相比。在热带地区和中纬度地区（长达60天）的总体预报，海洋海表温度的表现要好于气候学。此外，在大约45天的时间内，海军ESPC泛北极和南极海冰范围预测的效果要优于气候学，尽管该技能取决于季节。