当前位置: X-MOL 学术Earth Space Sci. › 论文详情
The Navy's Earth System Prediction Capability: a new global coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice prediction system designed for daily to subseasonal forecasting
Earth and Space Science ( IF 2.312 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-14 , DOI: 10.1029/2020ea001199
Neil Barton; E. Joseph Metzger; Carolyn A. Reynolds; Benjamin Ruston; Clark Rowley; Ole Martin Smedstad; James A. Ridout; Alan Wallcraft; Sergey Frolov; Patrick Hogan; Matthew A. Janiga; Jay Shriver; Justin McLay; Prasad Thoppil; Andrew Huang; William Crawford; Timothy Whitcomb; Craig Bishop; Luis Zamudio; Michael Phelps

This paper describes the new global Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (Navy‐ESPC) coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice prediction system developed at the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) for operational forecasting for timescales of days to the subseasonal. Navy‐ESPC will become operational in late 2020, and this system will be the first time the NRL operational partner, Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center, will provide global coupled atmosphere‐ocean‐sea ice forecasts, with atmospheric forecasts extending to 16 days, and ocean and sea ice ensemble forecasts. Two configurations of the system are validated: (1) a low‐resolution 16‐member ensemble system and (2) a high‐resolution deterministic system. A unique aspect of the Navy‐ESPC is that the global ocean model is eddy resolving at 1/12° in the ensemble and at 1/25° in the deterministic configurations. The component models are current Navy operational systems: NAVy Global Environmental Model (NAVGEM) for the atmosphere; HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) for the ocean; and Community Ice CodE (CICE) for the sea ice. Physics updates to improve the simulation of equatorial phenomena, particularly the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) were introduced into NAVGEM. The low resolution ensemble configuration and high‐resolution deterministic configuration are evaluated based on analyses and forecasts from January 2017 to January 2018. Navy‐ESPC ensemble forecast skill for large‐scale atmospheric phenomena, such as the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Antarctic Oscillation (AAO), and other indices, is comparable to that of other numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers. Ensemble forecasts of ocean sea surface temperatures perform better than climatology in the tropics and mid‐latitudes out to 60 days. In addition, the Navy‐ESPC Pan‐Arctic and Pan‐Antarctic sea ice extent predictions perform better than climatology out to about 45 days, although the skill is dependent on season.
更新日期:2020-09-15

 

全部期刊列表>>
物理学研究前沿热点精选期刊推荐
科研绘图
欢迎报名注册2020量子在线大会
化学领域亟待解决的问题
材料学研究精选新
GIANT
自然职场线上招聘会
ACS ES&T Engineering
ACS ES&T Water
屿渡论文,编辑服务
阿拉丁试剂right
张晓晨
田蕾蕾
李闯创
刘天飞
隐藏1h前已浏览文章
课题组网站
新版X-MOL期刊搜索和高级搜索功能介绍
ACS材料视界
天合科研
x-mol收录
X-MOL
清华大学
廖矿标
陈永胜
试剂库存
down
wechat
bug