Abstract A methodology to quantify the economic risk of a natural gas transmission pipeline system is developed in this study, and the effect of the line pack is considered. The methodology is based on the risk theory and hydraulic analysis of the transmission pipeline system. In the methodology, the failure probability of the key components in the transmission pipeline system are estimated firstly. Moreover, the transient compressible model for the pipeline system is employed to perform the consequence analysis, and the model is solved by the Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equation (SIMPLE) algorithm in the process of the consequence analysis. By combining the failure probability estimation with the consequence analysis, the economic risk when an accident happens can be evaluated. A detailed procedure for economic risk evaluation of a natural gas transmission pipeline system is presented, and its feasibility is confirmed with a real transmission pipeline system. Furthermore, impacts of the line pack on the economic risk are investigated, and suggestions to decrease the economy risk are proposed.

中文翻译：

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天然气输送管道系统的时变经济风险分析

摘要 本研究开发了一种量化天然气输送管道系统经济风险的方法，并考虑了管线包的影响。该方法基于传输管道系统的风险理论和水力分析。在该方法论中，首先估计传输管道系统中关键部件的故障概率。此外，采用管道系统的瞬态可压缩模型进行后果分析，并在后果分析过程中采用压力关联方程半隐式方法（SIMPLE）算法求解模型。通过将失效概率估计与后果分析相结合，可以评估事故发生时的经济风险。提出了天然气输送管道系统经济风险评估的详细程序，并通过实际输送管道系统验证了其可行性。此外，研究了线路包对经济风险的影响，并提出了降低经济风险的建议。