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From hot rock to useful energy: A global estimate of enhanced geothermal systems potential
Applied Energy ( IF 10.1 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-15 , DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115769
Arman Aghahosseini , Christian Breyer

This study demonstrates the theoretical, technical, optimal economic and sustainable potential of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) globally. A global estimate of EGS is presented in a 1°×1° spatial resolution. Constructed temperature at depth maps are computed for every 1 km thick layer, from 1 to 10 km. Multiple factors such as surface heat flow, thermal conductivity, radioactive heat production, and surface temperature are involved, and obtained from various sources and assumptions. The global EGS theoretical potential is assessed. Available heat content is then estimated using technical constraints for the temperature equal to or higher than 150 °C for any 1 km depth, and presented as thermal energy and electrical power capacity. The EGS optimal economic potential is derived from the optimum depth and the corresponding minimum levelised cost of electricity. The global optimal economic potential in terms of power capacity is found to be about 6 and 108 TWe for the cost years of 2030 and 2050, respectively. If economic and water stress constraints are excluded, the global EGS potential can be as much as 200 TWe. Further, an industrial cost curve is developed for the levelised cost of electricity as a function of EGS technical power capacity. The findings indicate that around 4600 GWe of EGS capacity can be built at a cost of 50 €/MWh or lower. A method is applied to measure the sustainable geothermal resource base. The obtained sustainable potential is found to be 256 GWe in 2050. Results are presented on a country basis and globally.



中文翻译:

从热岩到有用能源:增强地热系统潜力的全球估算

这项研究证明了全球增强地热系统(EGS)的理论,技术,最佳经济和可持续发展潜力。EGS的整体估算值以1°×1°的空间分辨率表示。对于从1到10 km的每1 km厚层,计算深度图上的构造温度。涉及多种因素,例如表面热流,导热系数,放射性热产生和表面温度,这些因素可以从各种来源和假设中获得。评估了全球EGS理论潜力。然后,针对任何1 km深度,使用等于或高于150°C的温度的技术约束条件估算可用热量,并表示为热能和电能容量。EGS的最佳经济潜力来自最佳深度和相应的最小平准化电力成本。根据电力容量,全球最佳经济潜力约为6和108 TWe分别表示2030年和2050年的成本年。如果排除经济和水资源压力限制,则全球EGS潜力可能高达200 TW e。此外,针对作为EGS技术能力的函数的平准化电力成本,开发了一条工业成本曲线。这些发现表明,围绕4600 GW Ë的EGS容量可以在50€/兆瓦或降低的成本来构建。应用一种方法来衡量可持续地热资源基础。到2050年,获得的可持续潜力为256 GW e。结果以国家为基础,并在全球范围内介绍。

更新日期:2020-09-15
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