Unlike other fuzzy modellings, probabilistic fuzzy sets can reflect clearly the importance of different numerical values. In group decision-making (GDM) problems, it is quite common for decision-makers (DMs) to elicit their knowledge with probabilistic hesitant fuzzy preference relations (PHFPRs), in which consistency adjustment and alternatives’ weight vector determination play a key role in the decision-making process. This study aims at constructing a decision-making model with PHFPRs. First, several new concepts are introduced, including the multiplicative consistency and consistency index of PHFPRs. Then, we present a construction approach for the multiplicative consistent PHFPRs, and a convergent local consistency improvement process for PHFPRs is designed to detect and improve their consistency when the PHFPRs do not meet the consistency level. The local adjustment strategy is utilized to retain the preference evaluation of DMs as much as possible. Afterwards, based on the obtained efficiency score values, we propose a new data envelopment analysis model to derive the weight values of alternatives. Furthermore, we explore a decision-making method with PHFPRs to obtain the optimal selection from the alternatives. Finally, an applied case about logistics company assessment is presented, and the effectiveness and rationality of the explored method are verified by the comparison with the various approaches.

与其他模糊建模不同，概率模糊集可以清楚地反映出不同数值的重要性。在小组决策（GDM）问题中，决策者（DM）经常会使用概率犹豫的模糊偏好关系（PHFPR）来获取知识，其中一致性调整和替代方法的权重向量确定在决策过程。本研究旨在构建具有PHFPR的决策模型。首先，引入了几个新概念，包括PHFPR的乘法一致性和一致性指数。然后，我们提出了乘法一致PHFPR的构造方法，PHFPR的收敛性局部一致性改进过程旨在检测和提高PHFPR不满足一致性级别时的一致性。利用局部调整策略来尽可能多地保留对DM的偏好评估。然后，基于获得的效率得分值，我们提出了一个新的数据包络分析模型，以得出替代方案的权重值。此外，我们探索了使用PHFPR的决策方法，以从替代方案中获得最佳选择。最后，给出了一个关于物流公司评估的应用案例，并与各种方法进行了比较，验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。基于获得的效率得分值，我们提出了一个新的数据包络分析模型，以得出替代方案的权重值。此外，我们探索了使用PHFPR的决策方法，以从替代方案中获得最佳选择。最后，给出了一个关于物流公司评估的应用案例，并通过与各种方法的比较，验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。基于获得的效率得分值，我们提出了一个新的数据包络分析模型，以得出替代方案的权重值。此外，我们探索了使用PHFPR的决策方法，以从替代方案中获得最佳选择。最后，给出了一个关于物流公司评估的应用案例，并与各种方法进行了比较，验证了该方法的有效性和合理性。