We consider how to forecast progress in the domain of quantum computing. For this purpose we collect a dataset of quantum computer systems to date, scored on their physical qubits and gate error rate, and we define an index combining both metrics, the generalized logical qubit. We study the relationship between physical qubits and gate error rate, and tentatively conclude that they are positively correlated (albeit with some room for doubt), indicating a frontier of development that trades-off between them. We also apply a log-linear regression on the metrics to provide a tentative upper bound on how much progress can be expected over time. Within the (generally optimistic) assumptions of our model, including the key assumption that exponential progress in qubit count and gate fidelity will continue, we estimate that that proof-of-concept fault-tolerant computation based onsuperconductor technology is unlikely (<5% confidence) to be exhibited before 2026, and that quantum devices capable of factoring RSA-2048 are unlikely (<5% confidence) to exist before 2039. It is of course possible that these milestones will in fact be reached earlier, but that this would require faster progress than has yet been seen.

中文翻译：

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预测量子计算的时间表

我们考虑如何预测量子计算领域的进展。为此，我们收集了迄今为止的量子计算机系统数据集，对其物理量子位和门错误率进行评分，我们定义了一个结合这两个指标的索引，即广义逻辑量子位。我们研究了物理量子比特和门错误率之间的关系，并初步得出结论，它们是正相关的（尽管有一些怀疑的空间），表明它们之间存在权衡的发展前沿。我们还对指标应用了对数线性回归，以提供关于随着时间的推移可以预期的进展程度的暂定上限。在我们模型的（通常是乐观的）假设中，包括量子比特数和门保真度的指数级进步将继续下去的关键假设，