Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

中文翻译：

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南极冰盖对突然和持续冰架崩塌的反应（ABUMIP）

南极洲的冰架调节着接地冰的流动，由于气候强迫而削弱冰架会降低它们的“支撑”效应，从而引起接地冰的反应。虽然控制冰架减弱的过程很复杂，但接地冰盖响应的不确定性也难以评估。南极支撑模型比对项目 (ABUMIP) 通过调查冰架完全和持续丧失的“最终成员”情景来比较冰盖模型对支撑减少的响应。虽然不切实际，但这种情况能够衡量 15 个冰盖模型的集合对支撑完全丧失的敏感性，因此展现了海洋冰盖不稳定性的全部潜力。所有模型都预测，这种情况会导致从现在起 500 年内海平面上升数米（1-12 m）。由于海洋冰盖的不稳定性，仅西南极冰盖坍塌导致海平面上升 1.91-5.08 m。质量损失率是滑动/摩擦定律的强大函数，塑性定律导致南极洲东部极光和威尔克斯冰下盆地的进一步不稳定。例如，与 SeaRISE 评估相比，海洋冰盖模型的改进大大降低了模拟冰盖对极端冰架损失的响应之间的可变性。塑性定律导致南极洲东部极光和威尔克斯冰下盆地的进一步不稳定。例如，与 SeaRISE 评估相比，海洋冰盖模型的改进大大降低了模拟冰盖对极端冰架损失的响应之间的可变性。塑性定律导致南极洲东部极光和威尔克斯冰下盆地的进一步不稳定。例如，与 SeaRISE 评估相比，海洋冰盖模型的改进大大降低了模拟冰盖对极端冰架损失的响应之间的可变性。