Global biodiversity is undergoing rapid declines, driven in large part by changes to land use and climate. Global models help us to understand the consequences of environmental changes for biodiversity, but tend to neglect important geographical variation in the sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. Here we test whether biodiversity responses to climate change and land-use change differ among biomes (geographical units that have marked differences in environment and species composition). We find the strongest negative responses to both pressures in tropical biomes and in the Mediterranean. A further analysis points towards similar underlying drivers for the sensitivity to each pressure: we find both greater reductions in species richness in the types of land use most disturbed by humans and more negative predicted responses to climate change in areas of lower climatic seasonality, and in areas where a greater proportion of species are near their upper temperature limit. Within the land most modified by humans, reductions in biodiversity were particularly large in regions where humans have come to dominate the land more recently. Our results will help to improve predictions of how biodiversity is likely to change with ongoing climatic and land-use changes, pointing toward particularly large declines in the tropics where much future agricultural expansion is expected to occur. This finding could help to inform the development of the post-2020 biodiversity framework, by highlighting the under-studied regions where biodiversity losses are likely to be greatest.

全球生物多样性正在迅速下降，这在很大程度上是由于土地利用和气候的变化所致。全球模型有助于我们了解环境变化对生物多样性的后果，但往往忽略了生物多样性对这些变化的敏感性方面的重要地理差异。在这里，我们测试了生物群落（环境和物种组成具有明显差异的地理单位）之间生物多样性对气候变化和土地利用变化的反应是否有所不同。我们发现对热带生物群落和地中海地区的压力都产生最强烈的负面反应。进一步的分析指出了对每种压力的敏感性的类似潜在驱动因素：我们发现，在受气候影响最弱的地区以及物种比例较高的地区，人类最受土地干扰的土地利用类型中物种丰富度的下降幅度更大，对气候变化的负面预测响应也更大。在人类最擅长的土地上，生物多样性的减少在人类最近占主导地位的地区尤为明显。我们的结果将有助于改善对生物多样性如何随着气候和土地利用的不断变化而可能发生的变化的预测，并指出热带地区的下降将特别大，预计未来将有很多农业扩张。这一发现可能有助于为2020年后生物多样性框架的发展提供信息，