This study evaluates the optimal expansion of the electricity sector of the BBIN (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, and Nepal) sub‐region with a detailed analysis of unevenly distributed resources and electricity demand, by developing a multi‐regional dynamic power sector optimization model, characterized by 27 nodes, 45 fuel transport lines, and 63 transmission lines in hourly temporal resolution. Scenarios developed in this paper assess the impact of 2 °C Paris agreement on production, transportation, and consumption of indigenous resources like coal and gas, the share of renewables and nuclear in the power generation mix, the utilization of huge untapped hydro resources through an expansion of cross‐border transmission lines. The simulation results show that hydro, wind, nuclear, and PV will be the dominant power sources, thus reducing the current share of coal, under carbon regulation scenario. The requirements of PV exceed its estimated commercially exploitable potential in most of the nodes in the nuclear‐restricted scenario. Expanding cross‐border transmission capacity will be an effective way to exploit untapped hydro resources so that Bangladesh and India can import power from Bhutan and Nepal. Although there is a slight increase in coal demand in the future, capacity expansion of fuel networks is not economical under adopted emission levels. © 2020 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.

中文翻译：

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使用空间分解的动态发电混合模型的BBIN子区域电力部门分析

这项研究通过开发多区域动态电力部门优化模型，通过对不均衡分布的资源和电力需求进行详细分析，评估了BBIN（孟加拉国，不丹，印度和尼泊尔）次区域的电力部门的最佳扩张，以小时时间分辨率为特征，具有27个节点，45条燃料传输线和63条传输线。本文提出的方案评估了2°C巴黎协议对煤炭，天然气等本地资源的生产，运输和消耗，可再生能源和核能在发电混合物中的份额，未开发的巨大水力资源的利用的影响。扩大跨境传输线。仿真结果表明，水力，风能，核能和光伏发电将成为主要动力，因此，在碳管制情景下，减少了煤炭的当前份额。在核限制情景中，大多数节点的光伏需求超过其估计的商业可利用潜力。扩大跨境输电能力将是开发尚未开发的水力资源的有效途径，以便孟加拉国和印度可以从不丹和尼泊尔进口电力。尽管未来煤炭需求会略有增加，但是在采用的排放水平下，燃料网络的容量扩张并不经济。©2020日本电气工程师学会。由Wiley Periodicals LLC发布。扩大跨境输电能力将是开发尚未开发的水力资源的有效途径，以便孟加拉国和印度可以从不丹和尼泊尔进口电力。尽管未来煤炭需求会略有增加，但是在采用的排放水平下，燃料网络的容量扩张并不经济。©2020日本电气工程师学会。由Wiley Periodicals LLC发布。扩大跨境输电能力将是开发尚未开发的水力资源的有效途径，以便孟加拉国和印度可以从不丹和尼泊尔进口电力。尽管未来的煤炭需求会略有增加，但在采用的排放水平下，燃料网络的容量扩张并不经济。©2020日本电气工程师学会。由Wiley Periodicals LLC发布。