Weather-based crop insurance is a powerful tool for stabilizing farmers’ income by providing timely payouts directly linked with weather parameters. However, its performance can be marred by faulty design, leading to high basis risk and insufficient payouts. This paper presents a new methodology for contract design for weather-based insurance, field tested in India. By combining agro-meteorological statistical analysis, crop growth modelling and optimization techniques, a heuristic model is developed which generates superior contract design which yields better and frequent payouts at no extra cost of subsidies (in terms of premium rates). The study also presents ‘Farmer Satisfaction Index’ as a powerful evaluation tool in determining the effectiveness of insurance products through measurement of basis risk. The method is backed by results from implementing the proposed model in many districts of Maharashtra, India. The proposed contract performed better than the existing insurance contract with 50 and 72 percent increase in Farmers Satisfaction Index for Soybean and Pearl Millet, while increasing correlation of payouts with yield losses and reducing the overall loss-cost ratio. Selected triggers effectively captured climatic risks in important crop growth phases. These results were consistent for pay-outs evaluated for long-term time series of 100 years of synthetic climate data. Findings indicate the use of recommended approach can lead to increased satisfaction of farmers, insurers and policymakers alike.

基于天气的农作物保险是通过提供与天气参数直接相关的及时付款来稳定农民收入的有力工具。但是，错误的设计可能会损害其性能，从而导致较高的基本风险和不足的支出。本文介绍了一种基于天气的保险合同设计的新方法，该方法在印度进行了现场测试。通过结合农业气象统计分析，作物生长建模和优化技术，开发了一种启发式模型，该模型可生成出色的合同设计，从而产生更好且更频繁的支出，而没有额外的补贴成本（就保费率而言）。该研究还提出了“农民满意度指数”，作为通过测量基础风险确定保险产品有效性的有力评估工具。该方法得到印度马哈拉施特拉邦许多地区实施该模型的结果的支持。拟议的合同比现有的保险合同表现更好，大豆和珍珠小米的农民满意度指数分别提高了50％和72％，同时增加了支出与产量损失的相关性并降低了总损失成本比。选定的触发因素有效地捕捉了重要作物生长阶段的气候风险。这些结果与对100年合成气候数据的长期时间序列评估的支出一致。研究结果表明，使用推荐方法可以提高农民，保险公司和决策者的满意度。拟议的合同比现有的保险合同表现更好，大豆和珍珠小米的农民满意度指数分别提高了50％和72％，同时增加了支出与产量损失的相关性并降低了总损失成本比。选定的触发因素有效地捕捉了重要作物生长阶段的气候风险。这些结果与对100年合成气候数据的长期时间序列评估的支出一致。研究结果表明，使用推荐方法可以提高农民，保险公司和决策者的满意度。拟议的合同比现有的保险合同表现更好，大豆和珍珠小米的农民满意度指数分别提高了50％和72％，同时增加了支出与产量损失的相关性并降低了总损失成本比。选定的触发因素有效地捕捉了重要作物生长阶段的气候风险。这些结果与对100年合成气候数据的长期时间序列评估的支出一致。研究结果表明，使用推荐方法可以提高农民，保险公司和决策者的满意度。选定的触发因素有效地捕捉了重要作物生长阶段的气候风险。这些结果与对100年合成气候数据的长期时间序列评估的支出一致。研究结果表明，使用推荐方法可以提高农民，保险公司和决策者的满意度。选定的触发因素有效地捕捉了重要作物生长阶段的气候风险。这些结果与对100年合成气候数据的长期时间序列评估的支出一致。研究结果表明，使用推荐方法可以提高农民，保险公司和决策者的满意度。