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Analyzing road crash frequencies with uncorrelated and correlated random-parameters count models: An empirical assessment of multilane highways
Analytic Methods in Accident Research ( IF 12.5 ) Pub Date : 2019-06-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2019.100101
Tariq Usman Saeed , Thomas Hall , Hiba Baroud , Matthew J. Volovski

Recent literature on highway safety research has focused on methodological advances to minimize misspecifications and the potential for erroneous estimates and invalid statistical inferences. To further these efforts, this study carries out an empirical assessment of uncorrelated and correlated random-parameters count models for analyzing road crash frequencies on multilane highways considering two crash severities; injury and no-injury. The empirical results indicate that the relative statistical performance of these models is comparable; however, the correlated random-parameters approach accounts for both the heterogeneous effects of explanatory factors across the road segments and the cross-correlations among the random-parameter estimates. As noted in the results, statistically significant correlation effects among the random parameters confirm the adequacy of this approach. The safety models for multilane highways presented in this study can be useful in (i) the detection of critical risk factors on these road types, (ii) the assessment of crash reduction due to improvements in pavement condition and retrofitting of roadway geometric features and, (iii) the prediction of crash frequency while comparing different design alternatives. As such, the outcomes of this study may assist design engineers and highway agencies in designing new or calibrating existing multilane highways from a safety standpoint.



中文翻译:

使用不相关和相关的随机参数计数模型分析道路碰撞频率:多车道高速公路的经验评估

公路安全研究的最新文献集中在方法学的进步上,以最大程度地减少错误指定以及错误估计和无效统计推断的可能性。为了进一步开展这些工作,本研究对不相关和相关的随机参数计数模型进行了实证评估,以考虑两个碰撞严重程度来分析多车道公路上的道路碰撞频率。伤害和无伤害。实证结果表明,这些模型的相对统计性能是可比较的。然而,相关的随机参数方法既考虑了跨路段的解释因素的异质性影响,又考虑了随机参数估计之间的互相关性。如结果所示,随机参数之间的统计学显着相关效应证实了该方法的适当性。本研究中提出的多车道高速公路安全模型可用于(i)检测这些道路类型上的关键危险因素,(ii)评估由于路面状况的改善和道路几何特征的改造而减少的撞车事故,以及(iii)预测碰撞频率,同时比较不同的设计方案。因此,这项研究的结果可以从安全的角度帮助设计工程师和公路部门设计新的或校准现有的多车道高速公路。(ii)评估由于路面状况的改善和道路几何特征的改建而减少的碰撞,以及(iii)在比较不同设计方案的同时预测碰撞频率。因此,这项研究的结果可以从安全的角度帮助设计工程师和公路部门设计新的或校准现有的多车道高速公路。(ii)评估由于路面状况的改善和道路几何特征的改建而减少的碰撞,以及(iii)在比较不同设计方案的同时预测碰撞频率。因此,这项研究的结果可以从安全的角度帮助设计工程师和公路部门设计新的或校准现有的多车道高速公路。

更新日期:2019-06-22
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