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The effects of neighborhood characteristics and the built environment on pedestrian injury severity: A random parameters generalized ordered probability model with heterogeneity in means and variances
Analytic Methods in Accident Research ( IF 12.5 ) Pub Date : 2017-10-20 , DOI: 10.1016/j.amar.2017.10.001
Chunfu Xin , Rui Guo , Zhenyu Wang , Qing Lu , Pei-Sung Lin

Transportation infrastructure facilities and pedestrian/driver behaviors are associated with neighborhood characteristics and the built environment. However, the effects of neighborhood characteristics and the built environment on pedestrian injury severity are not well documented. To investigate and quantify the effects of neighborhood characteristics and built environment on pedestrian injury severity, a random parameters generalized ordered probit model with heterogeneity in means and variances was proposed to consider the ordinal nature of injury data and the issue of threshold and unobserved heterogeneity. A total of 3867 pedestrian-vehicle crashes that occurred in Florida Department of Transportation District 7 from 2011 to 2014 were analyzed. Based on the estimation results, three factors (African American community, school zone, and bus stop area) related to neighborhood characteristics and the built environment were identified to have significant influence on pedestrian injury severity. Pedestrian-vehicle crashes that occurred in African American community or bus stop area are less likely to involve incapacitating and fatal injuries. The presence of a school within a 0.5-km buffer from a crash leads to a decreased probability of fatal injury and an increased probability of incapacitating injury. In addition, the estimated parameter for elderly pedestrian indicator (50 < age ≤ 65) was found to be random with significant heterogeneity in both mean and variance (where the mean and variance are associated with intersection-related crash indicator). Compared to younger pedestrians (age ≤ 30), 74.3% of elderly pedestrians who are involved in intersection-related crashes are more likely to suffer severe injury (fatal or incapacitating injury), while 52.4% of elderly pedestrians who are not involved in intersection-related crashes are more likely to suffer severe injury.



中文翻译:

邻里特征和建筑环境对行人伤害严重性的影响:均值和方差具有异质性的随机参数广义有序概率模型

交通基础设施和行人/驾驶员行为与邻里特征和建筑环境相关。但是,关于邻里特征和建筑环境对行人伤害严重程度的影响尚未得到充分记录。为了研究和量化邻里特征和建筑环境对行人伤害严重程度的影响,提出了均值和方差均一的随机参数广义有序概率模型,以考虑伤害数据的序数性质以及阈值和未观察到的异质性问题。分析了2011年至2014年在佛罗里达州交通运输七区的3867起行人车辆相撞事故。根据估算结果,三个因素(非裔美国人社区,学区,并确定与邻里特征和建筑环境有关的信息对行人伤害严重程度有重大影响。在非裔美国人社区或公交车站区域发生的行人交通事故较少造成致残和致命伤害。撞车后0.5公里处的一所学校的存在会导致致命伤害的可能性降低,而致残伤害的可能性也会增加。此外,老年人行人指示器(50 <年龄≤65)的估计参数被发现是随机的,在均值和方差(均值和方差与交叉路口相关的碰撞指示器相关)上均具有明显的异质性。与年龄在30岁以下的年轻行人相比74。

更新日期:2017-10-20
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