Abstract

Many studies have shown that the global fish catch can only be sustained with effective regulation that restrains overfishing. However, the persistence of weak or ineffective regulation in many parts of the world, coupled with changing technologies and additional stressors like climate change, renders the future of global catches uncertain. Here, we use a spatially resolved, bio-economic size-spectrum model to shed light on the interactive impacts of three globally important drivers over multidecadal timescales: imperfect regulation, technology-driven catchability increase, and climate change. We implement regulation as the adjustment of fishing towards a target level with some degree of effectiveness and project a range of possible trajectories for global fisheries. We find that if technological progress continues apace, increasingly effective regulation is required to prevent overfishing, akin to a Red Queen race. Climate change reduces the possible upper bound for global catches, but its economic impacts can be offset by strong regulation. Ominously, technological progress under weak regulation masks a progressive erosion of fish biomass by boosting profits and generating a temporary stabilization of global catches. Our study illustrates the large degree to which the long-term outlook of global fisheries can be improved by continually strengthening fisheries regulation, despite the negative impacts of climate change.

中文翻译：

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监管强度和技术蠕变在全球野生捕捞渔业长期预测中发挥关键作用

摘要

许多研究表明，只有通过有效的限制捕捞过度的措施，才能维持全球捕捞量。但是，世界许多地方监管不力或效果不佳的持续存在，加上技术的不断变化和气候变化等其他压力因素，使得全球渔获物的未来充满不确定性。在这里，我们使用空间解析的生物经济规模光谱模型来揭示在十年间尺度上三个全球重要驱动因素的互动影响：不完善的监管，技术驱动的可捕获性增加以及气候变化。我们实施法规，将捕捞活动以一定程度的有效性调整到目标水平，并为全球渔业预测一系列可能的轨迹。我们发现，如果技术进步继续迅速发展，类似于红皇后种族，需要越来越有效的法规来防止过度捕捞。气候变化降低了全球捕捞量的上限，但强有力的监管可以抵消其经济影响。不祥的是，在监管不力的情况下，技术进步掩盖了鱼类生物量的逐步侵蚀，这是通过增加利润并暂时稳定全球捕捞量来实现的。我们的研究表明，尽管受到气候变化的不利影响，但通过不断加强渔业监管，可以在很大程度上改善全球渔业的长期前景。监管不力的技术进步掩盖了鱼类生物量的不断侵蚀，因为它增加了利润并暂时稳定了全球捕捞量。我们的研究表明，尽管受到气候变化的不利影响，但通过不断加强渔业监管，可以在很大程度上改善全球渔业的长期前景。监管不力的技术进步掩盖了鱼类生物量的逐步侵蚀，这是通过增加利润并暂时稳定全球捕捞量来实现的。我们的研究表明，尽管受到气候变化的不利影响，但通过不断加强渔业监管，可以在很大程度上改善全球渔业的长期前景。