Climatic influences on forest fire and mountain pine beetle outbreaks and resulting runoff effects in large watersheds in British Columbia, Canada,Hydrological Processes

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Climatic influences on forest fire and mountain pine beetle outbreaks and resulting runoff effects in large watersheds in British Columbia, Canada
Hydrological Processes ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-13 , DOI: 10.1002/hyp.13908
Margot E. Vore ₁ , Stephen J. Déry ₁ , Yiping Hou ₂ , Xiaohua Wei ₂

Affiliation

Many studies have defined the interrelationships between climate, forest disturbance, and runoff at small scales (<100 km²), but few have translated these relationships to large watersheds (>500 km²). In this study, we explore the relationship between climate, extreme forest fire seasons, mountain pine beetle (MPB) outbreaks, and runoff in eight large watersheds within the Fraser and Peace drainage basins in British Columbia (BC), Canada from 1981–2019. Using a climate index based on precipitation and air temperature anomalies, we find extreme forest fire seasons (those that burned >5% of a watershed's area) are most likely to occur when a warm/dry summer is preceded by multiple seasons of cool/wet conditions. Using the climate suitability class (CSC) model to explore the relationship between climate and MPB outbreaks, we validate previous findings that lower‐than‐average precipitation, warm growing season temperatures, and lack of extremely cold temperatures during winter are connected to MPB outbreaks within central BC. However, the CSC model needs improvements to accurately assess MPB suitability in northern watersheds that are located outside the model's calibration region, either through weighted variables or lower degree day thresholds. Minimal runoff response occurs from these forest disturbances, with the most prominent runoff change being related to the 2014 fire season in the Osilinka and Mesilinka watersheds. The limited effects of forest disturbance on annual runoff are likely related to large watershed sizes, low percentages of disturbed area in some study watersheds and post‐MPB forest dynamics. These results provide valuable insight into the interrelationships of climate, forest disturbance and runoff in large Canadian boreal forested watersheds.

中文翻译：

气候对加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚省大流域森林火灾和山松甲虫暴发的影响以及径流影响

许多研究已经定义了小范围（<100 km ²）的气候，森林扰动和径流之间的相互关系，但是很少有人将这些关系转化为大流域（> 500 km ^2）。）。在这项研究中，我们探讨了1981-2019年间在加拿大不列颠哥伦比亚（BC）的Fraser和Peace排水盆地内的八个大流域中，气候，极端森林火灾季节，山松甲虫（MPB）爆发和径流之间的关系。使用基于降水量和气温异常的气候指数，我们发现极端的森林火灾季节（燃烧流域面积超过5％的季节）最有可能发生在一个温暖/干燥的夏季之后的多个凉/湿季节之前条件。使用气候适宜性等级（CSC）模型探索气候与MPB爆发之间的关系，我们验证了先前的发现，即低于平均水平的降水，温暖的生长季节温度以及冬季缺乏极冷温度与MPB爆发相关公元前中部。然而，CSC模型需要改进，以通过加权变量或较低度数日阈值准确评估位于模型校准区域之外的北部流域的MPB适用性。这些森林干扰对径流的响应最小，最显着的径流变化与2014年Osilinka和Mesilinka流域的火灾季节有关。森林扰动对年径流量的有限影响可能与大流域，某些研究流域的扰动面积百分比低以及MPB后森林动态有关。这些结果为加拿大大型北方森林流域的气候，森林干扰和径流之间的相互关系提供了有价值的见解。

更新日期：2020-11-09

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