Expansive vistas in mountain systems make scenic viewscapes – the visible portions of a landscape with which people form a connection – essential providers of cultural ecosystem services (CES). Like the dynamic systems they encapsulate, mountain viewscapes are subject to change, but the CES they provide are rarely considered from future or dynamic perspectives. Here we forecasted change in CES, using climatic shifts of a culturally valuable tree species, quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides), along scenic byways as an example of how viewscapes change through time. We simulated future aspen distributions in the Colorado Rocky Mountains through 2120 under three climate change scenarios and computed change in aspen visibility in 32,949 viewscapes. Across each scenario, the total area of aspen and its visibility from byways declined, but visible declines were 1.5–3.1 fold greater than declines in the study area overall. Differences between visible and total aspen peaked in mid-elevations (2000–3000 m) where aspen is most abundant. In contrast, aspen is forecasted to increase and become disproportionately more visible from scenic byways at lower elevations. Mismatch between total and visible declines in aspen highlights opportunities for tighter connections between landscape planning and ecological research for more comprehensive understanding of future changes in CES.

山区系统广阔的远景使风景秀丽的景观（人与之相连的景观的可见部分）成为文化生态系统服务（CES）的重要提供者。就像它们封装的动态系统一样，山地景观也可能会发生变化，但很少从未来或动态角度考虑它们提供的CES。在这里，我们使用具有文化价值的树种（白杨（Populus tremuloides）的气候变化）预测了CES的变化），沿着风景优美的小路作为景观随时间变化的示例。我们在三种气候变化情景下模拟了到2120年科罗拉多落基山脉的未来白杨分布，并计算了32949个景观中的白杨能见度变化。在每种情况下，白杨树的总面积及其在小路的可见性均下降，但可见的下降幅度要比整个研究区域的下降幅度大1.5-3.1倍。可见白杨和总白杨之间的差异在白杨最丰富的中海拔（2000-3000 m）达到峰值。相比之下，预计白杨会增加，并且在较低海拔的风景秀丽的小径上会更加不明显。