Climate change is affecting virtually all environments in the world today. The Central Asian mountains, where livestock herding is the main source of livelihood, are among the environments predicted to be most affected. In this paper, we use meteorological records and herder perceptions to improve the understanding of climate change and examine how different climate change scenarios will affect herder livelihoods in the Tost-Tosonbumba Nature Reserve of southern Mongolia. Herders with generation-long herding experience perceived that there had been changes in all eight meteorological variables examined in this study between 1995 and 2015, including winter temperature, summer temperature, summer precipitation, frequency of intense rain, frequency of drizzle rain, wind speed, number of windy days, and snow cover. Herder perceptions and meteorological data showed the same patterns for 3 of the 8 variables at α = 0.05 and for 5 of the 8 variables at α = 0.10. Herders also predicted that all 9 climate change scenarios presented would have negative impacts on their practices and livelihoods. Our work suggests that herder perceptions of climate change can provide important information on changes in the climate and insights on factors that put their livelihoods at risk.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下的传统生计：蒙古南戈壁牧民对气候变化及其后果的看法

气候变化正在影响当今世界上几乎所有的环境。以放牧为主要生计来源的中亚山区是预计受影响最大的环境之一。在本文中，我们利用气象记录和牧民感知来提高对气候变化的理解，并研究不同的气候变化情景将如何影响蒙古南部 Tost-Tosonbumba 自然保护区的牧民生计。具有世代放牧经验的牧民认为，1995 年至 2015 年间，本研究所考察的 8 个气象变量均发生了变化，包括冬季温度、夏季温度、夏季降水、大雨频率、毛毛雨频率、风速、刮风天数和积雪。Herder 感知和气象数据显示，α = 0.05 时 8 个变量中的 3 个和 α = 0.10 时 8 个变量中的 5 个具有相同的模式。Herders 还预测，所有 9 种气候变化情景都将对他们的做法和生计产生负面影响。我们的工作表明，牧民对气候变化的看法可以提供有关气候变化的重要信息，以及对使其生计面临风险的因素的见解。