Abstract Climate change and human land use are thought to play a dominant role in the dynamics of European central-latitude forests in the Holocene. A wide range of mathematical and statistical models have been used to study the effects of these variables on forest dynamics, including physiologically-based simulations and phenomenological community models. However, for statistical analysis of pollen count data, compositional data analysis is particularly well suited, because pollen counts give only relative information. We studied the effects of changes in human land use and temperature on European central-latitude forest dynamics at 7 sites over most of the last 10 ka , using a stochastic model for compositional dynamics of pollen count data. Our approach has a natural ecological interpretation in terms of relative proportional population growth rates, and does not require information on pollen production, dispersal, or deposition. We showed that the relative proportional population growth rates of Fagus and Picea were positively affected by intensified human land use, and that those of Tilia and Ulmus were negatively affected. Also, the relative proportional population growth rate of Fagus was negatively affected by increases in temperature above about 18 ∘ C . Overall, the effects of temperature on the rate of change of forest composition were more important than those of human land use. Although there were aspects of dynamics, such as short-term oscillations, that our model did not capture, our approach is broadly applicable and founded on ecological principles, and gave results consistent with current thinking.

中文翻译：

---

人类土地利用和温度对欧洲森林群落动态的影响

摘要 气候变化和人类土地利用被认为在全新世欧洲中纬度森林的动态中起主导作用。广泛的数学和统计模型已被用于研究这些变量对森林动态的影响，包括基于生理的模拟和现象学群落模型。然而，对于花粉计数数据的统计分析，成分数据分析特别适合，因为花粉计数仅提供相关信息。我们使用花粉计数数据组成动态的随机模型，研究了过去 10 ka 中大部分时间里人类土地利用和温度变化对欧洲中纬度森林动态的影响。我们的方法在相对比例的人口增长率方面具有自然生态学解释，并且不需要有关花粉产生、传播或沉积的信息。我们表明，Fagus 和 Picea 的相对比例人口增长率受到人类土地利用集约化的积极影响，而 Tilia 和 Ulmus 的人口增长率受到负面影响。此外，Fagus 的相对比例人口增长率受到高于约 18 ∘ C 的温度升高的负面影响。总体而言，温度对森林组成变化率的影响比人类土地利用的影响更重要。尽管我们的模型没有捕捉到动力学的某些方面，例如短期振荡，但我们的方法具有广泛的适用性，并且基于生态原理，