Background

Since the late 19th century, city planners have struggled to cope with new types of urban transport and mobility that threatened the existing system, or even rendered it obsolete.

Purpose

As city planners confront the range of disruptive urban mobilities currently on the horizon, this paper explores how we can draw on a vast body of evidence to anticipate and avoid unintended consequences to people's health and wellbeing.

Methods

This commentary involved a rapid review of the literature on transport disruption.

Results

We found that to avoid the unintended consequences of disruption, research, policy and practice must think beyond single issues (such as the risk of chronic disease, injury, or traffic management) and consider the broader consequences of interventions. For example, although autonomous vehicles will probably reduce road trauma, what will be the negative consequences for physical inactivity, sedentary behavior, chronic disease, land use, traffic congestion and commuting patterns? Research is needed that considers and informs how to mitigate the range of potential harms caused by disruptive mobilities.

Conclusion

In the face of new disruptive mobilities, we must: (a) draw on existing evidence to shape new regulations that address the ‘who, when and where’ rules of introducing new mobilities (such as electric assisted bicycles (e-bikes) and scooters (e-scooters)) of which the health repercussions can be easily anticipated; (b) monitor and evaluate the implementation of any interventions through natural experiment studies; and (c) use innovative research methods (such as agent-based simulation and health-impact-assessment modelling) to assess the likely effects of emerging disruptive mobilities (e.g., autonomous vehicles) on health and wellbeing and on the environment.

中文翻译：

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智能研究能否确保混乱城市中的人们健康？

背景

自 19 世纪后期以来，城市规划者一直在努力应对威胁现有系统甚至过时的新型城市交通和出行方式。

目的

随着城市规划者面对当前即将出现的一系列破坏性城市交通，本文探讨了我们如何利用大量证据来预测和避免对人们的健康和福祉造成的意外后果。

方法

这篇评论涉及对交通中断文献的快速回顾。

结果

我们发现，为了避免中断的意外后果，研究、政策和实践必须超越单一问题（例如慢性病、伤害或交通管理的风险），并考虑干预措施的更广泛后果。例如，尽管自动驾驶汽车可能会减少道路创伤，但对身体不活动、久坐行为、慢性病、土地使用、交通拥堵和通勤模式会产生什么负面影响？需要进行研究，以考虑并告知如何减轻破坏性移动造成的潜在危害范围。

结论

面对新的颠覆性出行方式，我们必须： (a) 利用现有证据制定新法规，解决引入新出行方式（如电动助力自行车（e-bike）和踏板车）的“谁、何时、何地”规则（电动滑板车）），其健康影响很容易预测；(b) 通过自然实验研究监测和评估任何干预措施的实施情况；(c) 使用创新的研究方法（例如基于代理的模拟和健康影响评估建模）来评估新兴的破坏性移动（例如自动驾驶汽车）对健康和福祉以及环境的可能影响。