Solar photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage deployment has grown rapidly in recent years and is expected to continue as the costs of these technologies continues to decline. As PV penetration grows, peak net load hours—where net load is load minus variable renewable energy generation—become increasingly important for understanding resource adequacy of power systems. In this work, we evaluate scenarios of a future U.S. power system with high penetrations of PV. We do so by using a national-scale capacity expansion model to consider 15 scenarios with national annual PV generation penetration levels of 16%–47%, combined wind and PV penetrations are 40%–64%, and storage capacity ranging from 5% to 47% of peak demand. The modeled scenarios incorporate 7-years of coincident weather data and load profiles (2007–2013) for the contiguous United States. In doing so, we evaluate when peak net load hours occur and how their occurrence is impacted by PV penetration, region, and weather. We find that with increasing PV penetration, peak net load hours move from afternoon periods to evenings or from midmorning to early morning, and that the frequency of winter peak net load hours increases. We also simulate hourly system dispatch in 3 of the 15 scenarios using a commercially available unit commitment and dispatch model—PLEXOS-- to evaluate with much greater resolution how the systems behave under specific weather conditions observed from 2007 to 2013. The hourly results show substantial shifts in how peak net load hours are served as PV penetration increases, and that how the system serves those top peak net load hours varies considerably across different regions of the country. Finally, we employ a simple method for estimating the impacts of snow cover in the high PV penetration scenarios and find that for the moderate and highest levels of PV we examine, snow cover has the potential to result in capacity and energy shortfalls.

近年来，太阳能光伏（PV）和储能技术的发展迅速，随着这些技术成本的不断下降，预计将继续发展。随着光伏渗透率的增长，峰值净负荷小时数（净负荷为负荷减去可变的可再生能源发电量）对于理解电力系统的资源充足性变得越来越重要。在这项工作中，我们评估了具有高光伏渗透率的未来美国电力系统的情景。为此，我们使用全国规模的产能扩展模型来考虑15种情景，这些情景的国家年度PV发电渗透率在16％–47％，风电和PV渗透率合计在40％–64％，存储容量在5％至高峰需求的47％。建模的方案包含了连续7年的连续美国天气数据和负荷曲线（2007-2013）。净负荷数小时发生，以及它们的发生如何受到光伏渗透率，区域和天气的影响。我们发现，随着PV渗透率的提高，峰值净负荷小时数从下午到晚上或从上午到清晨，冬季峰值净负荷小时数的频率增加。我们还使用市售的机组承诺和调度模型PLEXOS在15种方案中的3种中模拟了每小时的系统调度，以更高的分辨率评估了系统在2007年至2013年观测到的特定天气条件下的运行情况。每小时的结果表明，随着光伏渗透率的增加，峰值净负荷小时的服务方式发生了变化，并且该系统如何为这些最高峰值净负荷小时提供服务的方式在美国不同地区有很大差异。最后，