Long-term energy planning models and dispatch simulations are two key stages in the methodology for a cost-effective transition to a low-carbon power system. Although these stages are equally important, they are often performed independently. This decoupled approach can lead to future investment trajectories decided by long-term energy planning models with no guarantee of a reliable electricity supply.

To tackle this problem, the aim of this study was to develop a general methodological framework using a multi-model approach to address adequacy requirements in the long term. An automated soft-linking model was used to successively:

i.

Plan the optimal power generation mix to satisfy a given level of future expected electricity demand subject to various constraints using the TIMES framework (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System).

ii.

Assess the adequacy of the obtained power generation mix under several climatic and operational future states using the probabilistic operational open-source model ANTARES (A New Tool for the generation Adequacy Reporting of Electric Systems).

iii.

Implement iterative feedback loops based on the estimated ability of different generating technologies to support peak demand (capacity credit) to ensure a total firm capacity in line with the electricity supply criterion.

长期能源计划模型和调度模拟是该方法向经济高效过渡到低碳电力系统的两个关键阶段。尽管这些阶段同样重要，但是它们通常是独立执行的。这种分离的方法可能导致长期投资计划模型决定未来的投资轨迹，而不能保证可靠的电力供应。

为了解决这个问题，本研究的目的是建立一个使用多模型方法的一般方法框架，以长期解决充足性需求。自动软链接模型用于依次：

一世。

使用TIMES框架（综合MARKAL-EFOM系统），规划最佳的发电组合，以满足给定水平的未来预期电力需求，但要满足各种约束条件。

ii。

使用概率运行开源模型ANTARES（一种用于电力系统发电报告的新工具），评估在多个气候和未来运行状态下获得的发电组合的充分性。

iii。

基于不同发电技术的估计能力来实施迭代反馈循环，以支持峰值需求（容量信用），以确保总公司容量符合电力供应标准。