Twelve years after the first significant discovery in the pre-salt layer, pre-salt fields represent about 55% of Brazil’s oil production. Following an economic recession, an increase in the country credit risk, and the 2014 oil price collapse, we analyze the production of petroleum in the pre-salt zones by identifying: the break-even price (BEP), and the effect of oil price, price volatility, productivity, and country risk on wells drilled. To identify these effects on the number of wells drilled into the pre-salt zone, we estimate 100 cointegrating vector autoregression models that specify 10 measures of price and 10 break-even prices. The most accurate model measures oil prices using WTI, has a BEP of $62 per barrel (2018 prices). Results indicate the negative and positive effect, respectively, of raising the country risk and productivity on the number of development wells drilled into the pre-salt zone.

在预盐层中首次重大发现之后的十二年，预盐田约占巴西石油产量的55％。在经济衰退，国家信用风险增加以及2014年石油价格暴跌之后，我们通过确定：收支平衡价格（BEP）和石油价格的影响来分析盐下地区的石油生产，价格波动，生产力和国家/地区的钻井风险。为了确定这些对盐下带钻井数量的影响，我们估计了100个协整矢量自回归模型，这些模型指定了10个价格度量和10个盈亏平衡价格。最准确的模型使用WTI衡量油价，BEP为每桶62美元（2018年价格）。结果分别显示了负面影响和正面影响，