The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America,Science

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The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America
Science ( IF 44.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-10 , DOI: 10.1126/science.abc8169
Michael Worobey ₁ , Jonathan Pekar _{2,

3} , Brendan B Larsen ₁ , Martha I Nelson ₄ , Verity Hill ₅ , Jeffrey B Joy _{6,

7,

8} , Andrew Rambaut ₅ , Marc A Suchard _{9,

10,

11} , Joel O Wertheim ₁₂ , Philippe Lemey ₁₃

Affiliation

Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA.
Bioinformatics and Systems Biology Graduate Program, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA.
Institute of Evolutionary Biology, University of Edinburgh, King's Buildings, Edinburgh EH9 3FL, UK.
Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Bioinformatics Programme, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada.
Department of Biomathematics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Biostatistics, Fielding School of Public Health, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Human Genetics, David Geffen School of Medicine, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA.
Department of Medicine, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093, USA.
KU Leuven Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, Laboratory of Clinical and Epidemiological Virology, Leuven, Belgium.

A series of unfortunate events The history of how severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) spread around the planet has been far from clear. Several narratives have been propagated by social media and, in some cases, national policies were forged in response. Now that many thousands of virus sequences are available, two studies analyzed some of the key early events in the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Bedford et al. found that the virus arrived in Washington state in late January or early February. The viral genome from the first case detected had mutations similar to those found in Chinese samples and rapidly spread and dominated subsequent undetected community transmission. The other viruses detected had origins in Europe. Worobey et al. found that early introductions into Germany and the west coast of the United States were extinguished by vigorous public health efforts, but these successes were largely unrecognized. Unfortunately, several major travel events occurred in February, including repatriations from China, with lax public health follow-up. Serial, independent introductions triggered the major outbreaks in the United States and Europe that still hold us in the grip of control measures. Science, this issue p. 571, p. 564 Early SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks in Europe and the United States were extinguished, but later travel introduced more virus that became established. Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critical for public health responses and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here we elucidate when, where, and how the earliest sustained severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission networks became established in Europe and North America. Our results suggest that rapid early interventions successfully prevented early introductions of the virus from taking hold in Germany and the United States. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington state, United States, founded the earliest sustained European and North America transmission networks. Our analyses demonstrate the effectiveness of public health measures in preventing onward transmission and show that intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks from becoming established in these regions.

更新日期：2020-09-10

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