Detector data can be used to construct cumulative flow curves, which in turn can be used to estimate the traffic state. However, this approach is subject to the cumulative error problem. Multiple studies propose to mitigate the cumulative error problem using probe trajectory data. These studies often assume “no overtaking” and thus that the cumulative flow is zero over probe trajectories. However, in multi-lane traffic this assumption is often violated. Therefore, we present an approach to estimate the change in cumulative flow along probe trajectories between detectors based on disaggregated detector data. The approach is tested with empirical data and in microsimulation. This shows that the approach is a clear improvement over assuming “no overtaking” in free-flow conditions. However, the benefits are not clear in varying traffic conditions. The approach can be applied in practice to mitigate the cumulative error problem and estimate the traffic state based on the resulting cumulative flow curves. As the performance of the approach depends on the changes in traffic conditions, it is suggested to use the probe speed observations between detectors to assign an uncertainty to the change in cumulative flow estimates. Furthermore, a potential option for future work is to use more elaborate schemes to estimate the probe relative flow between detectors, which may, for instance, combine probe speeds with estimates of the macroscopic states along the probe trajectory. If these macroscopic estimates are based on the cumulative flow curves at the detector locations, this would result in an iterative approach.

检测器数据可用于构建累积流量曲线，而累积流量曲线又可用于估计交通状况。但是，这种方法存在累积误差问题。多项研究提出使用探针轨迹数据来减轻累积误差问题。这些研究通常假设“没有超车”，因此在探测轨迹上的累计流量为零。但是，在多车道交通中，这一假设经常被违反。因此，我们提出了一种方法，用于基于分解后的探测器数据来估计探测器之间沿探测器轨迹的累积流量的变化。该方法已通过经验数据和微观仿真进行了测试。这表明，相对于假设自由流动条件下的“不超车”，该方法具有明显的改进。但是，在变化的交通状况下，其好处尚不清楚。该方法可在实践中应用，以减轻累积错误问题并根据所得的累积流量曲线估算交通状况。由于该方法的性能取决于交通状况的变化，因此建议使用探测器之间的探测器速度观测值来为累计流量估算值的变化分配不确定性。此外，未来工作的潜在选择是使用更复杂的方案来估计探测器之间的探测器相对流量，例如，可以将探测器速度与沿探测器轨迹的宏观状态的估计结合起来。如果这些宏观估计是基于检测器位置的累积流量曲线，则将导致迭代方法。