ABSTRACT

Low carbon transition pathways entail diverse uncertainties and risks in the underlying environmental, social, political, economic and technological factors. Inadequate information about such risks could affect the achievement of climate change mitigation targets negatively. This paper provides a novel experiment in which quantitative tools and stakeholder engagement are combined in order to identify the barriers between stakeholders and scientists concerning climate change mitigation aspects. Technological risks are captured by simulating different low carbon scenarios with limited technology options. Stakeholders are asked about their preferences on technology options regarding a low carbon future. After providing them with the simulation results, they are asked again in order to see whether those initial preferences had changed. Results prove the necessity for better communication between modelers and stakeholders. Closing the gaps between both communities is essential to remove barriers for more ambitious action against climate change.

摘要

低碳转型路径在潜在的环境，社会，政治，经济和技术因素中带来各种不确定性和风险。有关此类风险的信息不足，可能会对实现减缓气候变化目标产生负面影响。本文提供了一种新颖的实验，其中将量化工具和利益相关者的参与相结合，以便确定利益相关者与科学家之间在缓解气候变化方面的障碍。通过用有限的技术选择模拟不同的低碳情景来捕获技术风险。利益相关者被问及他们对低碳未来技术选择的偏好。向他们提供模拟结果后，再次询问他们以查看这些初始偏好是否已更改。结果证明了在建模人员和利益相关者之间进行更好的沟通的必要性。消除这两个社区之间的鸿沟对于消除障碍以采取更雄心勃勃的行动来应对气候变化至关重要。